Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: TNF Week 16 (Titans-49ers)

Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans rolls out to pass during a game against the New Orleans Saints at Nissan Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Titans defeated the Saints 23-21.
Image Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Week 16 officially begins with the San Francisco 49ers at the Tennessee Titans. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!

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It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
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Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for Thursday Night Football of Week 16

Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards

Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers hands the ball to Jeff Wilson Jr. #22 during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on November 21, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Image Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

In the last two games, Jeff Wilson Jr. has run hard and effectively as the featured back while filling in for an injured Elijah Mitchell. He rushed for 56 yards on 13 rush attempts in Week 14 before erupting for 110 yards on 21 rush attempts in Week 15.

According to Pro Football Focus, out of 38 backs with a minimum of 15 rush attempts in Week 14 and Week 15, Wilson was 13th in yards after contact per attempt (3.21 YCO/A) and fourth in 10-plus-yard runs (five). In addition, Pro Football Focus grades the 49ers first in run blocking in 2021, making Wilson’s life easier in a mediocre matchup.

According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are only 17th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The 49ers are three-point favorites, and I’m more bullish about their outlook tonight. So, the game script should be good. As a result, Bet Prep projects Wilson for 65.82 rushing yards.

George Kittle OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards

George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after catching the ball for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on December 05, 2021 in Seattle, Washington.
Image Credit: Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Frankly, George Kittle’s yardage pick feels shockingly low. Sure, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans are tied for the fourth-fewest receiving yards allowed to tight ends (496). But, to that, I say, who cares? Kittle isn’t any tight end. He’s arguably the best tight end in the NFL.

Kittle has earned Pro Football Focus’s highest receiving grade among all tight ends in 2021. Moreover, out of 31 tight ends targeted at least 40 times, Kittle’s 2.81 yards per route run (Y/RR) is first by a landslide, topping Dallas Goedert’s ark of 2.35 Y/RR. To put the discrepancy between Kittle and Goedert in perspective, it’s more significant than the gap between second and seventh.

In addition, Kittle has been a fire-breathing giant since returning from the Injured Reserve in Week 9, besting 69.5 receiving yards in four of seven games, including three straight. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s eclipsed 90 receiving yards in those four contests. Understandably, Bet Prep projects Kittle for 78.55 receiving yards.

Ryan Tannehill OVER 0.5 Interceptions

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs
Image Credit: George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

I voiced my opinion the 49ers will win by more than the 3.0-point spread above. Therefore, it stands to reason Ryan Tannehill will have to air the ball out if the Titans are playing from behind. This week, he might get A.J. Brown back in the receiving corps, and Julio Jones isn’t on the injury report. Still, Brown might be rusty, and Jones left last week’s game early with a hamstring injury. So, the passing attack might remain stuck in the mud.

Tannehill hasn’t bested 200 passing yards in three straight games, throwing an interception in two of those contests. Additionally, he’s been picked off in seven of his last nine games and nine of 14 contests in 2021. So Tannehill isn’t just suffering from bad luck, either.

According to Pro Football Focus, out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Tannehill is tied for the 14th-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage, having 18 of his throws graded as turnover-worthy plays. Additionally, a look at his game log reveals he has at least one turnover-worthy play in all but three contests this year.

Unfortunately, the 49ers have only six interceptions this year. Still, Bet Prep is slightly leaning toward Tannehill throwing an interception, projecting 0.57 interceptions for Tennessee’s quarterback this week.