Week 6 officially begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the “City of Brotherly Love” to face the Philadelphia Eagles. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Thursday Night Football of Week 6.
Jalen Reagor UNDER 38.5 Receiving Yards
The Philadelphia Eagles spent a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Jalen Reagor. Unfortunately for the organization, he’s failed to live up to expectations that accompany first-round draft capital. Further, a new head coach and offense haven’t unlocked his potential, either.
Sure, the team is giving him chances. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks second on the team in routes (166). Still, he’s squandering his opportunities with extremely inefficient play. For example, out of 81 receivers targeted at least 15 times this year, his 0.84 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) ranks 77th. Also, per Pro-Football-Reference, out of 147 qualified pass-catchers, he ranks 132nd in yards per target (5.6).
Of course, it doesn’t help Reagor’s case for continuing to receive ample work that fellow second-year receiver, Quez Watkins, is playing much better. Therefore, I’m unsurprised to see Bet Prep projecting Reagor for only 36.82 receiving yards. So, let’s take the under on 38.5 receiving yards for Reagor.
DeVonta Smith OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards
Unlike last year’s first-round pick at receiver, DeVonta Smith wins over onlookers by playing at a high level in his rookie campaign. He’s immediately ascended to the top spot in the passing attack, evidenced by leading the team in routes (201), targets (39), receptions per game (5.0), and receiving yards per game (62.8).
It hasn’t been smooth sailing. Still, he’s had more ups than downs. The last two weeks, Smith’s been at his best, recording seven receptions for 122 receiving yards in Week 4 and amassing seven receptions for 77 receiving yards in Week 5.
I like his odds of continuing his stellar play in a favorable matchup this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Buccaneers have yielded the sixth-most receiving yards (1,020) to wideouts this season. In addition, the pace, team’s tendency to pass at a high rate against the Bucs (they’ve faced the most pass attempts this year), and projected negative game script for the 7.0-point underdog Eagles all enhance my optimism for Smith exceeding 72.5 receiving yards.
Antonio Brown +4.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Chris Godwin
Finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a high-powered trio of receivers at Tom Brady’s disposal. Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin are two of the Big Three studs. However, Brown missed Week 3 against the Patriots, skewing his raw totals compared to Godwin.
Comparing rate stats, Brown shines compared to Godwin. First, Brown averages 81.3 receiving yards per game compared to 73.2 for Godwin. Second, Brown averages 11.2 yards per target, and Godwin’s mark is only 8.9. Third, Brown sports 2.75 Y/RR compared to only 1.63 Y/RR for Godwin, easing the sting of Brown running fewer routes than Godwin.
Finally, in four games Brown and Godwin have played together, Brown has totaled more receiving yards than Godwin three times. Bet Prep projects Brown for more receiving yards than Godwin this week, projecting 63.17 for Brown and 62.87 for Godwin. So, let’s wrap up the Thursday Night Football Underdog Fantasy picks by selecting Brown +4.5 receiving yards against Godwin in the Rivals picks.