Week 4 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between AFC West rivals. This awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy picks. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 4.
Bryan Edwards OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
The Las Vegas Raiders have spread the wealth in the passing attack. Derek Carr has slung it all over the place, averaging a league-high 401.0 passing yards per game. As a result, four members of the Raiders have cleared 200 receiving yards. One of the players to eclipse that mark is second-year wideout, Bryan Edwards.
He’s averaging 3.3 receptions and 70.0 receiving yards per game. In addition to his stellar box-score numbers, his underlying usage marks are strong. According to Pro Football Focus, Edwards’ 117 passing snaps and 111 routes are second to only Darren Waller’s 145 and 132, respectively. However, despite playing more than Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow, his receiving yardage prop is the lowest.
I’m buying into Edwards’ yardage prop being a pinch low in a potential uptempo shootout. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 18th in situation neutral pace. Thus, they’re a bit below average. However, the Chargers are playing at the third-fastest situation neutral pace. So, they should increase the game’s tempo.
Finally, BetPrep is in alignment with backing over 39.5 receiving yards for Edwards. Their projection is 45.16 yards.
Mike Williams OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s stick with another over in a game I’m expecting to play at a steady, fast pace. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has drastically altered Mike Williams’ passing-game usage, and he’s unlocked a beast.
Before this year, Williams was only a vertical threat. Before this year, his average depth of target was north of 15.5 yards downfield in three of four campaigns. In 2021, Lombardi’s reduced the depth to only 9.8 yards downfield. As a result, Williams is setting new personal bests in numerous categories such as yards per route run (2.66 Y/RR), receptions per game (7.3), and receiving yards per game (98.3). Additionally, the big-bodied wideout is averaging more than 10 targets per game.
Somewhat surprisingly, he’s arguably overtaken stud wideout Keenan Allen, for top dog in the passing attack. But, inarguably, they’re a supremely talented one-two punch. Further, the offense can support more than one top-flight option in the passing game because it’s a pass-happy offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Chargers have passed at the fourth-highest rate (65%).
Yet again, BetPrep supports the over with me. They project Williams for 80.64 receiving yards. So let’s lock in another over.
Austin Ekeler OVER 97.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards
If I’m projecting a brisk pace and points, something the game’s over/under of 51.5 points also supports, then it’s not unreasonable to snag another over. This time, I’m turning my attention to the do-it-all back, Austin Ekeler.
Through three weeks, Ekeler’s unusual zero-target performance in Week 1 stands out like a sore thumb as an outlier. In the two weeks since he has hauled in all 15 of his targets for 113 receiving yards. Ekeler’s one of the game’s top receiving backs, so it’s unsurprising he’s excelling in that department.
However, he’s also rushed for 54 or more yards in all three games. And, perhaps most exciting, his playing time has climbed every game. He played 58% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, 63% in Week 2, and 74% in Week 3, per Pro-Football-Reference.
The increasing usage has coincided with back-to-back triple-digit-yardage outputs, amassing 115 yards from scrimmage in Week 2 and 107 in Week 3. Ekeler’s the unquestioned lead back for the Chargers. Additionally, he’s game-script proof, enhancing his odds of surpassing his yardage prop.
And, to close this piece, we’re three for three on picks that mesh with BetPrep’s projections. Bet Prep projects 99.46 total yards for Ekeler tonight. So, the only thing left to do is head over to Underdog Fantasy, lock these three picks in, get your popcorn ready, and enjoy the offensive fireworks tonight.
