The Monday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 14. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 14.
Tyler Higbee UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Higbee is one of the NFL’s premier cardio enthusiasts. According to Pro Football Focus, among 84 players with at least 50 targets in 2021, Higbee has been 81st in yards per route run (0.98 Y/RR). Moreover, his 395 receiving yards are the 10th-fewest in that group. So, in other words, he runs routes at a high rate without producing meaningful results.
In addition, he hasn’t increased his production in the wake of Robert Woods’ season-ending injury. Higbee has had only nine receptions, 71 receiving yards, and 0.62 Y/RR in three games without Woods this year. Further, he has a challenging matchup on tap. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cardinals allow the sixth-fewest receiving yards (430) to tight ends.
As a result, I love picking Higbee’s under for 35.5 receiving yards. Additionally, Bet Prep supports that pick, projecting 35.07 receiving yards for Higbee against the Cardinals.
Zach Ertz UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards
Since they acquired him via trade, Zach Ertz has carved out a valuable role in Arizona’s offense. However, he’s played only three games with the Cardinals’ full complement of pass-catchers. Furthermore, DeAndre Hopkins left one of those games (Week 8) early with an injury.
Thankfully, three games are something awarding us data to dissect. In those three contests, Ertz has been third in routes (61) and receiving yards (118), and fourth in targets (10), and receptions (eight). Unfortunately, Ertz’s 10 targets amounted to an underwhelming 13.2% target share in the sample.
The Cardinals’ offense offers Kyler Murray a bevy of talented options to spread the ball around to. Naturally, therefore, it’s hard for anyone to make significant waves. So, I’m taking Ertz’s under for 41.5 receiving yards. Once again, Bet Prep agrees with my pick, projecting the veteran tight end for 39.25 receiving yards.
Christian Kirk UNDER 46.5 Receiving Yards
Christian Kirk is also impacted by the vast selection of players Murray has to choose from in the passing game. In the three-game sample discussed above, Kirk has run the second-most routes (67), garnering the most targets (14), but ranking tied for second in receptions (nine) and fourth in receiving yards (100). Further, his 18.4% target share leaves something desired as the team leader for those contests.
Also, since a hot start to the year, Kirk has hit the skids. Since Week 4, Kirk has eclipsed 46.5 receiving yards in four of nine games. In addition, Kirk was targeted only once when the Cardinals faced the Rams in Week 4, hauling it in for just five receiving yards.
Since Kirk primarily operates from the slot, playing 77.4% of his passing snaps there this year, he will compete for opportunities with Rondale Moore (77.5% slot) and Ertz (52.1% slot with the Cardinals), and possibly running back Chase Edmonds if he plays tonight. It’s a crowded situation, lowering Kirk’s ceiling and floor for receiving yards. Thus, I’ll round out tonight’s picks with a third under that Bet Prep agrees with, projecting 45.74 receiving yards for Kirk.
