Week 5 provides us a return to London after a one-year hiatus, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action for Sunday morning’s contest between the Jets and Falcons. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the Sunday morning game in London.
Michael Carter UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards
Rookie Michael Carter is leading the Jets in rushing. But, of course, that’s relatively speaking. He’s averaging only 31.8 rushing yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference. Further, he’s averaging only 3.4 yards per attempt, and he’s reached double-digit carries in only two of four games. As for the yardage, his season-high is 59 rushing yards, and he’s been under 40, including in back-to-back games.
Perhaps the biggest problem for Carter is being embroiled in a three-back committee. According to FantasyPros, Carter’s 51% snap share last week was his highest mark in a game this year. Fellow back Ty Johnson played a season-low 33% last week. Still, Tevin Coleman returned from a one-game absence to play 18% of the snaps.
Carter’s probably the best bet to pull away from his peers as the year goes on. However, for now, he’s stuck sharing carries in an ineffective offense, behind an average or worse line, in a game that projects to play at an average or slower pace, facing an average run defense, as a 3.5-point underdog.
Addressing these points one by one, first, the Jets rank dead last in scoring offense (11.8 points per game). Second, Pro Football Focus ranks the Jets 13th in run blocking, and Football Outsiders ranks them 26th in Adjusted Line Yards. Third, the Falcons are playing at the 10th-fastest situation neutral pace, but the Jets rank 23rd, per Football Outsiders. Fourth, the Falcons rank 21st in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which is bad but not in the bottom 10. Finally, the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs.
In summation, there isn’t a lot to like about the context for Carter exceeding his rushing yardage prop. As a result, Bet Prep is projecting Carter for only 39.10 rushing yards.
Mike Davis UNDER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Let me start by saying I was a huge fan of the Falcons signing Davis in the offseason. Unfortunately, however, he’s struggled mightily. Meanwhile, the team’s unlocked all-time-great return man Cordarrelle Patterson as a multi-faceted back, and Wayne Gallman joined the mix for the first time last week.
Davis averages only 37.8 rushing yards per game at 3.1 yards per attempt on 12.3 carries per game. Comparatively, Patterson is rushing for 4.4 yards per attempt on 6.8 attempts per game. Finally, Gallman saw his first game action for the Falcons, rushing for 4.8 yards per attempt on six carries.
Davis led the backfield in playing time at 67% of snaps. Still, Patterson played 30%, and Gallman played 13%. In addition, it’s easy to imagine Davis’ ineffectiveness opening the door for more touches for Patterson and Gallman. Nevertheless, even if that doesn’t happen this week, Davis hasn’t been good. He’s gone over his rushing yardage prop in two of four games, but his season-high for rushing yards is only 50.
Additionally, he faces the same pace challenge I discussed for Carter above. Also, he faces a stiffer challenge behind an ineffective line. First, the Jets rank 15th in rush defense DVOA. Second, Pro Football Focus grades the Falcons 22nd in run blocking, and they rank 24th in Adjusted Line Yards.
Once again, Bet Prep sides with me, taking the under. They project Davis for 42.83 rushing yards.
Kyle Pitts OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
We snuck over Kyle Pitts’ yardage total by the skin of our teeth last week. So, let’s go back to the well again this week. Pitts was able to go over his yards, despite leaving tons of meat on the bone. He set a new high with nine targets but secured only four for 50 yards, his second game with 50 or more receiving yards.
According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks second on the Falcons in routes (139), moving all over the formation. To the latter point, he’s played 35 passing snaps inline, 48 wide, and 72 in the slot. Basically, he’s a jumbo receiver.
Further, he ranks second on the team in targets (26). Unfortunately, he’s reeled in only 15 for 189 yards. Still, he’s averaging 47.3 receiving yards per game, with untapped potential to boot. This week, he might unlock some of his potential in what I believe is a favorable matchup.
The Jets rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, the Jets are tied for the 10th-fewest yards yielded to tight ends this season. However, I’m taking their stellar rank against the position with a grain of salt.
It appears to be matchup fueled, facing the Panthers, Patriots, Broncos, and Titans. The Panthers and Titans don’t often use their tight ends. Facing the Patriots and Broncos, they coughed up 70 yards on six receptions to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in Week 2, then ceded only 21 yards to Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam in Week 3. Adding another caveat, Denver attempted only 25 passes, winning 26-0.
Ultimately, New York’s defense hasn’t been challenged much by the position, and they flunked one of their few challenges. As a result, I like Pitts’ odds of getting the better of the Jets in London. However, don’t just trust me. Bet Prep has the rookie sneaking over his total with a projection of 45.74 receiving yards.
