Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Player Props, Picks and Predictions – Thursday, Mar. 07

Dec 3, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand (63) shoots the puck during the third period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at TD Garden.
Image Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

We have your Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Toronto Maple Leafs hit the road to face the Boston Bruins.

The Boston Bruins (36-13-15) are set to host the Toronto Maple Leafs (36-18-8) in a highly anticipated Eastern Conference clash. With both teams among the top in their division, this matchup could have significant playoff implications.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Odds Info

Moneyline: Toronto Maple Leafs +116 (BetRivers) / Boston Bruins -141 (BetRivers)

Puck Line: -1.5 – Toronto Maple Leafs -215 (BetRivers) / Boston Bruins +175 (BetRivers)

Total: 6.0 – -105 (BetMGM) / -109 (BetRivers)

Game Info

Date: Thursday, Mar. 07

Time: 07:00 PM

Location: TD Garden – Boston, MA


Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • This season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hit 35 overs and 27 unders.
  • On the road this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hit 16 overs and 14 unders.
  • As the underdog this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have hit 5 overs and 3 unders.

Boston Bruins Betting Trends

  • This season, the Boston Bruins have hit 31 overs and 33 unders.
  • At home this season, the Boston Bruins have hit 14 overs and 18 unders.
  • As the favorite this season, the Boston Bruins have hit 27 overs and 27 unders.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Throughout the 2023-2024 NHL season, the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have faced off three times, with the Bruins emerging victorious in each encounter. The first game took place on November 2, 2023, with Boston playing at home and narrowly securing a win in the second overtime, resulting in a 3-2 final score. The second game, on December 2, 2023, saw the Bruins win again, this time as the visiting team, with a final score of 4-3 after an overtime victory. The most recent game on March 4, 2024, ended with a more decisive 4-1 victory for the Bruins in Toronto. In terms of betting statistics, the Bruins have consistently outperformed expectations, covering the spread in all three games. The over/under betting results have been mixed, with one game going over and two games falling under the projected total score. The Bruins have demonstrated a strong offensive presence, with a total of 11 goals across the three games, while the Maple Leafs have managed to score only 6 times. The Bruins’ goaltenders have also outperformed their Maple Leafs counterparts, with higher save percentages in each game.

Focusing on the most recent game on March 4, 2024, the Boston Bruins solidified their dominance over the Toronto Maple Leafs with a convincing 4-1 win on the road. The Bruins were the underdogs with a closing moneyline of +110, yet they managed to surpass expectations. The game began with Morgan Geekie scoring the opening goal, followed by Pavel Zacha’s wrist shot to extend the lead, both goals assisted by David Pastrnak. Jake DeBrusk added to the tally in the second period, and despite John Tavares scoring for the Maple Leafs in the third, Zacha’s second goal of the night sealed the victory for Boston. The Bruins’ goaltender, Jeremy Swayman, had an impressive night with a save percentage of 0.97, stopping 32 out of 33 shots. The Maple Leafs’ Joseph Woll, on the other hand, saved 23 out of 27 shots, with a save percentage of 0.852. The game did not reach the over/under line of 6.5, with the total score summing up to 5, marking it as an under.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Predictions

The Bruins and Maple Leafs have been on divergent paths lately, with Boston looking to rebound from a recent loss and Toronto entering on a winning note. The Bruins, second in the Eastern Conference, have been struggling to maintain consistency, while the Maple Leafs, sitting fourth, are aiming to build on their recent success. Boston’s offense is spearheaded by right winger David Pastrnak, who leads the team with 38 goals and 52 assists, while Toronto’s attack is led by center Auston Matthews, the NHL’s leading goal scorer with 54 goals. Both teams boast formidable offensive power, with the Bruins and Maple Leafs ranking high in goals scored per game.

Defensively, the Bruins have been more effective, with a strong goaltending duo that has outperformed Toronto’s netminders in head-to-head matchups this season. The Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman has been particularly impressive, with a save percentage of 0.97 in their last meeting. The Maple Leafs will need Joseph Woll to step up and match that level of performance to give them a chance at victory. Special teams could also play a crucial role, as both teams have had mixed results on the power play and penalty kill throughout the season.

The key player matchup to watch will be between the Bruins’ Pastrnak and the Maple Leafs’ Matthews, as both are critical to their respective teams’ success. Pastrnak’s playmaking abilities and Matthews’ goal-scoring prowess could be the deciding factors in this game. With the Bruins looking to assert their dominance at home and the Maple Leafs seeking to prove their mettle on the road, fans can expect a tightly contested game that could come down to the wire. As the teams prepare to face off at TD Garden, the stakes are high, and the action is sure to be intense.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Pick

Considering the recent performances and historical matchups between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, the under on a total line of 6.0 goals appears to be the most prudent pick. The last game between these two teams resulted in a total of 5 goals, falling under the projected total. Moreover, the Bruins have hit the under in 33 of their games this season, while the Maple Leafs have also trended towards the under with 27 games. The defensive play of both teams, particularly the Bruins’ goaltending, has been a significant factor in keeping scores low. With Boston’s Jeremy Swayman showcasing a save percentage of 0.97 in the last encounter, it’s likely that the Bruins will continue to suppress the Maple Leafs’ scoring opportunities.

Additionally, the Bruins’ recent inconsistency and the Maple Leafs’ need to improve their goaltending suggest a game focused more on defense than high-scoring affairs. While both teams have potent offensive talents in Pastrnak and Matthews, the importance of this matchup for playoff positioning may lead to a more cautious and strategic game, where minimizing mistakes and capitalizing on a few key opportunities could be the difference-maker. Given these factors, along with the high-pressure environment of a late-season game with significant implications, it’s reasonable to expect a tight, low-scoring battle, making the under the most logical choice.

The Pick: Under 6.0 -105 (BetMGM)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Player Prop Picks

Here are the players who have hit over their current prop line in at least 7 of their last 10 games.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Name Prop Line Over Rate Over Odds Under Odds Last 10 Average Projection
Auston Matthews Shots On Goal 3.5 8/10 -166 +130 4.0 3.99
Mitch Marner Points 0.5 8/10 -238 +180 1.5 1.33
Tyler Bertuzzi Shots On Goal 1.5 7/10 -180 +140 2.4 2.45
Mitch Marner Assists 0.5 7/10 -135 +105 1.3 1.17