Top Five Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: Week 13

Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders throws the ball to a teammate in the first quarter in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium on November 14, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Image Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!

Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
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It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 13.

Cordarrelle Patterson -2.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Leonard Fournette

Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium on October 24, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Let’s start this week’s picks with a rivals selection that jumped off the page to me. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are commanding 10.5-point favorites against their NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons. The spread alone is eye-catching, indicating the Dirty Birds are likely to be forced into playing catch-up. Thus, while the Bucs should be positioned to protect a lead, the Falcons will have to air it out to keep pace.

Beyond the probable game script, there’s a decided talent discrepancy as receivers between Cordarrelle Patterson and Leonard Fournette. According to Pro Football Focus, among 49 running backs targeted at least 20 times, Fournette is tied for 20th in yards per route run (1.33 Y/RR), and Patterson is first with 3.13 Y/RR.

Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Fournette averages 32.2 receiving yards per game, and Patterson averages 50.0 receiving yards per game. Additionally, Fournette’s season-high for receiving yards is 46, and he’s totaled under 40 yards in seven of 11 games. Meanwhile, Patterson’s season-high for receiving yards is 126, and he has more than 55 receiving yards in five of 10 games.

As a result, Bet Prep projects Patterson for 44.56 receiving yards. Conversely, Fournette is projected for only 29.49 receiving yards. So, Patterson projects to cover the 2.5-yard spread comfortably.

Justin Jefferson -42.5 Receiving Yards Vs. T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver #18 Justin Jefferson celebrates a first down against the Seahawks.
Image Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Don’t allow the sizable yardage spread to dissuade you from taking Justin Jefferson, laying 42.5 receiving yards to T.J. Hockenson. The second-year stud receiver averages 93.4 receiving yards per game. Also, according to Sports Info Solutions, Jefferson is 12th in target share (25.4%) and second in Intended Air Yards (1,301). Comparatively, Hockenson’s marks lag considerably behind at 48.5 receiving yards per game,  a 20.9% target share, and 533 Intended Air Yards.

Moreover, Hockenson’s season-long totals are slightly inflated by a couple of excellent performances to start the year. In his last nine games, he’s bested 50 receiving yards only three times. Conversely, Jefferson recorded two of his lowest receiving yardage totals in the year’s first two games, reaching at least 80 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games.

The matchup is decidedly more favorable for Jefferson than Hockenson, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Minnesota Vikings are 10th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, and the Detroit Lions are 28th in pass defense DVOA. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards (474) to tight ends, and the Lions have allowed the 15th-most receiving yards (1,819) to wideouts this season.

Finally, when these NFC North foes squared off in Week 5, Hockenson totaled only 22 receiving yards, and Jefferson torched the Lions for 124 receiving yards. Therefore, it’s easy to understand why Bet Prep Projects Jefferson for 91.97 receiving yards and Hockenson for 46.17 receiving, a margin of 45.8 receiving yards favoring Jefferson.

Evan Engram MORE Receiving Yards Than Darius Slayton

Evan Engram #88 of the New York Giants catches a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first quarter at MetLife Stadium on November 28, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Image Credit: Elsa/Getty Images

Daniel Jones is out, leaving Mike Glennon to start for the New York Giants this week. Glennon relieved a concussed Jones in Week 5. Unfortunately, Darius Slayton was out in that contest. Still, the veteran quarterback demonstrated some rapport with Evan Engram, completing all three of his passes to the tight end for 37 receiving yards.

Additionally, Engram should be a better stylistic fit than Slayton with Glennon. According to Pro Football Focus, Slayton has an average depth of target of 12.6 yards downfield in 2021, and Engram’s is shallower at only 4.1 yards. In Glennon’s Week 5 appearance, he attempted two passes 20-plus yards, eight from 10-19 yards downfield, six from zero to nine yards, and six behind the line of scrimmage. Thus, Engram’s short usage pairs better with Glennon’s tendencies this year showcased in his only game.

Finally, last week, Engram ran a team-high 32 routes in new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens’ first game in that role. Meanwhile, Slayton ran 27 routes. Again, the samples are small, but they lean in Engrams’ direction. So, I’ll take the tight end in a pick ’em for receiving yards.

Antonio Gibson OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards

Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson (24) celebrates after a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Image Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

This might look like an odd pick at first blush. In 11 games this year, Antonio Gibson has cleared 22.5 receiving yards only two times. But, of course, one of those times was last week. So, nevertheless, this isn’t an overreaction to the most recent game.

Instead, it’s a pick fueled by J.D. McKissic’s absence this week. The Washington Football Teams’ pass-catching back is out this week, seemingly leaving Gibson, a converted college receiver, to soak up most of McKissic’s receiving work.

Gibson isn’t a clone of McKissic. Still, it’s promising that McKissic surpassed 22.5 receiving yards in seven of 11 games.

The matchup isn’t too shabby for Gibson’s receiving outlook, either. The Raiders are 25th in pass defense DVOA. They’re also ceding 40.72 receiving yards per game to running backs. Add everything up, and Bet Prep has Gibson sneaking over his yardage prop with a projection of 22.93 receiving yards.

Derek Carr OVER 273.5 Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass in the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Image Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards per game (310.4). In addition, Carr has passed for more than 273.5 yards in seven of 11 games. Obviously, that’s an excellent foundation for picking Carr’s over.

A look under the hood provides me more optimism for his yardage output this week, though. Two of the times Carr fell short of his yardage prop were in his first three games without Henry Ruggs. According to Stat Head, Carr’s adjusted yards per pass attempt cratered from 8.59 in Week 1 through Week 7 to 6.22 in Week 9 through Week 11.

Last week, Carr turned his production around, torching the Dallas Cowboys for 373 yards at 10.08 adjusted yards per pass attempt. Not coincidentally, Carr’s big game dovetailed with DeSean Jackson’s highest playing time rate and route total in three games with the Raiders. The veteran quarterback’s production appears to largely be tied to the presence of a legitimate vertical threat.

Unfortunately, D-Jax is working through a calf injury. However, he is downplaying the significance of the injury. If you’re more risk-averse and willing to chance Carr’s passing yardage total rises with confirmation of Jackson playing, you can wait. I’m buying what Jackson’s selling, so I’m hopping on the over now to get it at this number along with the other discussed picks at their current lines. Finally, Bet Prep supports the over, projecting Carr for 276.87 passing yards.