Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!
Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 11.
Zack Moss UNDER 45.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Zack Moss has played in eight games this year. He’s gone under 45.5 rushing plus receiving yards in half of his games played. Therefore, this seems like a reasonable prop at first blush for a player averaging 53.3 rushing plus receiving yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference.
However, Moss’s matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, coupled with his most recent game, makes this a clear under selection for me. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are second in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, Indy is playing at the slowest situation neutral pace. So, Moss will suffer from a double-whammy of facing a stout run defense and opposing an offense intent on milking the clock.
Further, Moss was stuck in an even more pronounced running-back-by-committee situation last week. He’s shared backfield duties with Devin Singletary this year, frequently playing more than Singletary. However, Matt Breida joined the mix last week. Further, Moss was the least effective runner in Week 10, rushing for only 27 yards compared to 28 for Breida and 43 for Singletary. This is a messy expectation, so I’m expecting Moss to fall short of 45.5 rushing plus receiving yards for the fourth time in his last five games.
Stefon Diggs OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards
As I often do in this piece, I’m attacking correlation. I fully admit this is a tick looser than usual since a large part of the reason I’m taking Moss’s under for rushing and receiving yards is the muddied running back situation. However, I also expect the Bills to lean into their pass-heavy tendencies this week.
Unlike Indy’s rush defense, their pass defense is giving, ranking 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Colts are especially giving to wide receivers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they are tied for the seventh-most receiving yards allowed (1,654) to wideouts, coughing up 165.4 per game to the position.
Meanwhile, the Bills love slinging the rock around the field. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Bills pass at the highest rate (68%).
As for Stefon Diggs, he is a standout in a few measures. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is tied for 12th in target share (25.7%) and fourth in Intended Air Yards (1,082). In addition, after stumbling out of the blocks, Diggs is in great form. He set a season-high with 162 yards last week, and he’s eclipsed 81.5 receiving yards in four of his previous six games.
I expect Diggs to keep rolling this week. Bet Prep agrees, projecting him for 85.60 receiving yards against the Colts.
Justin Fields UNDER 248.5 Total Yards
Justin Fields is coming out of the Chicago Bears’ Week 10 bye, riding high after playing the best football of his rookie season in Week 8 and Week 9. However, they’re the only two games in seven starts that he has totaled more than 248.5 total yards.
Yes, he’s likely making improvements with regular-season game reps. However, a matchup with the Baltimore Ravens should throw a wet blanket on his recent success. According to Pro Football Focus, among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year, Fields is taking the sixth-most time to pass. Additionally, he’s passed for the second-fewest yards (267) and ninth-lowest yards per attempt (5.2) under pressure.
Fields’ slow delivery and struggles against pressure don’t portend well for playing against the Ravens. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Baltimore is blitzing at the third-highest rate (33.2%) and pressuring quarterbacks at the second-highest rate (28.5%). As a result, Bet Prep is projecting Fields to sneak under his yardage prop with 248.03 total yards.
Tee Higgins OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins has played seven games this year, falling short of 60.5 receiving yards in his first four games. He’s rebounded for 62 yards, 97 yards, and 78 yards in his last three games, though. Thus, we should hop on the over because he’s bested his yardage prop in three straight, right?
Well, yes, but there’s more to it. The Cincinnati Bengals have dramatically altered their offense since Week 1. In Week 1 through Week 3, when the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Bengals passed at the fifth-lowest rate (51%). However, since Week 4 under on the same offensive scoring margin conditions, Cincinnati is passing at the second-highest rate (67%). So keeping the seismic shift in passing rate in mind, Higgins’ three-game heater appears to be legitimate.
The matchup is favorable for him to keep rolling, too. The Las Vegas Raiders are 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Once again, Bet Prep agrees with my pick, projecting Higgins for 61.02 receiving yards.
Darren Waller UNDER 71.5 Receiving Yards
Darren Waller is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s best tight ends and matchup nightmares. Nevertheless, he’s not living up to his previous level of elite production. He’s averaging 5.5 receptions and 61.8 receiving yards per game, significantly lower than his 6.7 receptions and 74.8 receiving yards per game in 2020.
Waller’s slide in production coincides with his target share dipping. The stud tight end’s target share is 21.5% this year after sitting at an eye-popping 27.7% last year. As a result, he’s exceeded 71.5 receiving yards in only two of eight games. Further, he has 65 receiving yards or fewer in the other six games.
Finally, the matchup is suboptimal for a vintage Waller showing in Week 11. First, the Bengals are playing at the second-slowest situation neutral pace. Thus, the Raiders might get dragged into a slower-paced game, decreasing their plays and potential for Waller to surpass 71.5 receiving yards. Second, the Bengals are allowing the eight-fewest receiving yards (389) to tight ends at only 43.22 receiving yards per game.
Sure, Waller is a unique freak among his peers at tight end. Nonetheless, he’s not merely a jumbo wideout like Kyle Pitts and Mike Gesicki. According to Pro Football Focus, Waller has played 52.2% of his passing snaps aligned inline. In conclusion, Bet Prep supports taking the under as well, projecting Waller for only 61.42 receiving yards.
