One of the quarterbacks in this NFC North matchup has notable splits, enhancing the appeal of their player prop. An emerging rookie has a cushy matchup which should allow him to eat. In addition, an ancillary pass-catcher might not be busy, making their receiving under an enticing wager. We’ll run through all of those scenarios in the Packers vs. Lions player props below.
Packers vs. Lions Player Props: SNF Week 18
For a full list of Packers vs. Lions player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Jared Goff Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Jared Goff is a monster at home and wilts on the road. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the veteran quarterback has averaged 274.7 passing yards per game and had 8.77 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt in nine home games this year. On the road, those marks crater to 248.9 passing yards per game and 7.19 AY/A in seven games.
Goff was held under 249.5 passing yards in four of seven road games. In addition, he had his lowest yardage total in Week 9 against the Packers, passing for only 137 yards. Per Football Outsiders, the Packers are seventh in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 11. They’ve also held three of the last six starting quarterbacks they’ve faced under 249.5 passing yards. So after factoring in Goff’s struggles on the road, the under is an inviting bet.
Where to bet: Jared Goff Under 249.5 Passing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Christian Watson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Christian Watson was a game-time decision heading into the last contest and was held to one 11-yard reception on five targets. He’s been held under 50 yards in his past four games. However, Watson isn’t listed on Green Bay’s injury report.
Therefore, it’s all systems go for the dynamic rookie in a mouthwatering matchup. According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the most receiving yards per game (90.2) against the Lions.
Is Watson the No. 1 wideout for the Packers? His usage says he is. On Aaron Rodgers’ 92 pass attempts since Romeo Doubs returned in Week 15, Watson was tied for the team lead in targets 19. Yet, per Pro Football Focus, his 27.9% targets per route run is higher than Allen Lazard’s 19.8% mark. Watson can feast in this cupcake matchup. Thus, I’m taking his over for 52.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Christian Watson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Robert Tonyan Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Robert Tonyan is an afterthought in Green Bay’s offense. In their last three games, he’s had only eight targets, five receptions, and 69 receiving yards.
The veteran tight end popped up for 52 receiving yards last week, his second-highest total this season. However, Tonyan’s had 20 receiving yards or fewer in six of his last seven games.
The matchup isn’t particularly inviting for Tonyan, either. Since Week 11, T.J. Hockenson (67 receiving yards), C.J. Uzomah (41), Evan Engram (30), and Cole Kmet (27) were the tight ends who eclipsed 24.5 receiving yards against the Lions. Hockenson, Engram, and Kmet are all more involved in their teams’ offenses and are superior players to Tonyan. Further, Detroit’s ability to hold Engram to just 30 receiving yards is a red flag for Tonyan’s receiving potential. Tonyan’s bit role in Green Bay’s offense is unlikely to get him over 24.5 receiving yards. So, I’m riding with his under for receiving yards.
Where to bet: Robert Tonyan Under 24.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook