Two clubs heading in different directions ahead of the NFL playoffs meet in a potentially lopsided Thursday Night Football contest. The Cowboys are riding high after defeating the Eagles last week, and the Titans are circling the drain, albeit with a win-and-in game on the table for Week 17, regardless of the outcome of this contest. So will the Titans have an eye ahead to next week? Will it matter? We’ll look at both clubs and provide our Titans vs. Cowboys prediction for Thursday Night Football.
Titans vs. Cowboys Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -10 | -480 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| @ Titans | +10 | +360 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 1 a.m. ET on Dec. 28. New to this book? Check out our Caesars Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem up to a $1,250 free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 29
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
- TV: Amazon
Titans vs. Cowboys Trends
- The Cowboys opened as 9.5-point favorites on Sunday (12/25) and moved to a 10-point favorite by Monday night, where they’ve remained.
- Tennessee is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games following an against-the-spread loss.
- The Titans are 1-4-1 against teams with a winning record.
- Tennessee is 0-4-1 against the spread in their previous five games.
- The Titans are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games following a straight-up loss.
- Dallas is 6-0 against the spread after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against a team with a losing home record.
- Dallas is 10-3 against the spread versus a team with a losing record.
- The Cowboys are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 road games.
Tennessee’s Problems Are Apparent
The Titans are stout against the run and have a workhorse running back. But, unfortunately, those are where the positives begin and end for the Titans. Moreover, it’s 2022, and having a run-centric offense and a defense built to slow the opponent’s running attack is suboptimal.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s passing offense is cooked. Ryan Tannehill is recovering from an ankle injury, and Malik Willis isn’t an NFL-caliber quarterback. The rookie quarterback has made three starts, and his 99-yard passing effort last week was a personal best. Predictably, Tennessee’s offense couldn’t muster much offense under the leadership of Willis. They scored 17, 17, and 14 points in those contests, facing the Texans twice and the Chiefs once. Thus, they didn’t face stout defenses in his starts.
In addition, Tennessee’s pass defense is a disaster. First, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (279.6), tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed (26), and have coughed up the ninth-highest Quarterback Rating (93.5) this season. Second, according to Football Outsiders, Tennessee is 29th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 10.
Dallas Is Strong Where It Counts In This Matchup
The Cowboys are merely 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game (130.0). However, Dallas is ninth in rush defense DVOA since Week 10. They’re more susceptible against the pass, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA since Week 10. Fortunately, Willis and his merry band of underwhelming pass-catching options are ill-equipped to exploit Dallas’s defensive weakness.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys are 11th in rushing offense DVOA and 12th in passing offense DVOA. So, they have a balanced and above-average offense. Further, they’ve had at least 385 total yards and scored at least 27 points in every game since their Week 9 bye.
Unfortunately, Dak Prescott has thrown at least one interception in his previous five games and in eight of 10 contests this year. Nevertheless, he’s had at least 250 passing yards in seven of his last eight contests and tossed multiple touchdowns in seven of those games. Therefore, Prescott can carve up Tennessee’s porous secondary.
Titans vs. Cowboys Predictions
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys have the fourth-best point differential (+131) this year. Meanwhile, the Titans have been outscored by 43 points.
Recent performance has also tilted in favor of the Cowboys. Dallas has won five of seven games since their bye in Week 9. Conversely, Tennessee has lost their previous five games and Willis’s past two starts.
In addition, there might not be a more substantial matchup advantage at the quarterback position this week than Prescott versus Willis. The former is an above-average quarterback who can light up the scoreboard, and the latter is a rookie third-round pick who’s averaged 78.0 passing yards per game, completed only 51.02% of his passes, thrown zero touchdowns, and tossed three interceptions in three starts.
The Cowboys should boat-race the Titans. And the Titans might pull the plug on their starters quickly if they’re getting hammered to preserve themselves for a win-and-in game against the Jaguars in Week 17. Finally, Cooper Rush and Dallas’s reserves can handle protecting a massive lead and prevent Tennessee’s reserves from kicking in the backdoor for a cover. So, I’ll gladly lay 10 points with the favored Cowboys and back them in this week’s Thursday Night Football game.
Pick: Cowboys -10| -110 at Caesars Sportsbook