Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Player Props & Predictions – Game 6

Dec 25, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Ball Arena.
Image Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Timberwolves are set to face the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, May 16. The game is scheduled for 8:30 ET while airing on ESPN. Minnesota enters this game as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 204.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Timberwolves vs Nuggets player props and predictions below.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

  • Spread: Timberwolves -2.5
  • Total 204.5

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Game Info

  • Date: Thursday, May 16
  • Time: 8:30 ET
  • Location: Target Center, Minneapolis MN
  • TV: ESPN

Nuggets Betting Trends

  • Over their last five games, the Nuggets have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Although Denver has a straight up record of 7-3 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 113 points per game in these games.
  • Through their last three games as the underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.

Timberwolves Betting Trends

  • In their last five games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
  • In their last ten games at home, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 110 points per game in these contests.
  • Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 4-6.

After a close first quarter, the Nuggets outscored the Timberwolves by a combined 22 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters to take a 14-point lead into the 4th. Denver covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites, and the final score of 112-97 was three points above the over/under line of 206. The Nuggets held the Timberwolves to just 30.8% shooting from three-point range.

Nikola Jokic had a big game for the Nuggets, finishing with 40 points, 13 assists, and seven rebounds. Jokic shot 68.2% from the field and knocked down two threes. Denver shot 55% from the field as a team, but they made just nine threes. Karl-Anthony Towns led the Timberwolves with 23 points, and Rudy Gobert added 18 points and 11 rebounds.

No Pressure for Denver as Away Dogs

The Nuggets have won three straight games and are 57-25 on the season, which is good for 2nd in the Western Conference. In non-conference play, they are 24-6 compared to 33-19 against the West.

As the underdog, Denver has gone 7-6 this season and is 8-5 ATS as the underdog. Their ATS record as the underdog is currently at five straight wins, and their straight-up record as the underdog is 13-13.

On the road, the Nuggets are 27-18 this season and have won their last two games as the underdog. Their average scoring differential on the road is +1.4 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves by a score of 112-97. They were favored by 4.5 points in that game and covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 206 points.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 38-52-2, and they have gone over the total in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 222.9 points.

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 4th best shooting team, hitting 49% of their shots from the field. They are also 7th in two-point shooting at 56%. Despite being one of the most efficient teams in terms of field goal percentage, the Nuggets are last in the league in three-point attempts and 25th in three-point makes. The Nuggets are averaging 114.9 points per game this season, which is 15th in the league.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.4 points per game over his last five games, while shooting 53.8% from the field. In these games, he also averaged 10.4 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Aaron Gordon has hit 61.5% of his threes in his last five games and averaged 17.4 points in that stretch. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury and has averaged 16.8 points per game in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the league this season. They are currently 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.0. In their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 101.2 points per game, which is 3rd in the league during that span.

Denver has been particularly good at defending the three-point line this season. They are 2nd in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 35.1%. Opponents have also made fewer threes than their season average in 79.3% of their games against the Nuggets.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 82.9% of their games vs. Denver this season. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, the Nuggets are 9th in the NBA at 46.6%.

Can the Timberwolves Lock in a Home Win?

Minnesota is looking to bounce back after losing to the Nuggets by a score of 112-97. In that game, the Timberwolves were 4.5-point underdogs, and the combined scoring total was 209 points.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 48-43, and the over has hit in three straight games. Today’s O/U line is 204.5, and the team’s games have averaged 218.8 points per game.

In terms of their ATS record, Minnesota is 46-44 for the season and has failed to cover the spread in their last three games. As the favorite, they are 20-25 ATS at home and 31-35 overall.

Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves are in 3rd place with a record of 56-26. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West.

Overall, Minnesota has been favored in 67 of their 82 games this season and has a record of 49-18 in those games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 31-35, and they are favored by 2.5 points today.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. Their production at home is just 111.4 points per contest, which is 24th in the league. The Timberwolves are also below average in terms of pace, averaging 97 possessions per game.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 40.6% of his threes. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 19.4 points in his last five games while hitting 52.2% of his threes in these games.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the league this season, allowing just 106.3 points per game. That mark is the best in the NBA, and they have been even better at home, giving up just 103.8 points per game.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been the 7th best defense in the NBA, allowing just 104.6 points per game. In terms of three-point shooting, Minnesota has been one of the best at defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot just 36% from deep, which is 4th best in the league.

For the season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 80.5% of games against the Timberwolves. When it comes to rebounding, Minnesota is 15th in the NBA, but 6th in defensive rebounds per game.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Player Props

A player prop we are looking at is Nikola Jokic and his points prop of 29.5.

Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -104 while the under is at -131. In his matchup vs. the Timberwolves, we are recommending to take the under on Nikola Jokic and his prop of 29.5 points. Our player projection model has him falling short of his prop with a projected 29.

  • The Prop: Nikola Jokic Under 29.5 Points (-131)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +2.5, the Nuggets is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 204.5 and given that our model is projecting 226 points between the teams, we like the over.

The Pick: Nuggets +2.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook