If we turn back the clock to May 13, 2018 — U.S. bettors could place legal sports bets in a single locale: Nevada. The next day the Supreme Court delivered a ruling that struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), a 1992 law that prevented states from legalizing sports betting. And the floodgates were opened.
Today, it’s easier to list states where U.S. bettors cannot place legal sports bets. At the time of writing, 35 states and the District of Columbia have passed legislation legalizing sports betting, with more than two dozen jurisdictions legalizing mobile sports betting.
California could become the 36th state in November, depending on the results of the ballot measures, Proposition 26 and 27. But where does U.S. sports betting go from there?
A Quick Look At The States To Watch In 2023
Next year, there will be no shortage of activity (including North Carolina’s ongoing attempt to expand from a retail sports betting state to a mobile sports betting state). Still, the list of states to keep a close eye on as we head into 2023 numbers just five or six. Furthermore, it will come as no surprise if legal sports betting gets shut out next year.
Missouri: Overcoming Ancillary Issue
VLTs (video lottery terminals) sank Missouri’s efforts to legalize sports betting in 2022. That issue remains unresolved and will continue to rear its head in future sports betting talks. The problem is going nowhere, and unless it’s decoupled from sports betting discussions, it will continue to be a significant hurdle.
Georgia: An All Or Nothing Approach
Georgia has taken several swings at sports betting, but the state’s strategy is to radically change the gambling landscape with a vast expansion of gambling that includes not just sports betting but casino gambling.
Unlike Missouri, sports betting has a better chance in Georgia with the all-or-nothing approach, as the state lacks the key gambling stakeholders to push a bill (or ballot initiative) across the finish line. Working in its favor, Democrat gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams has come out in favor of expanded gambling, which could elevate gambling as a key campaign point.
Kentucky: Who Will Lead The Charge?
Kentucky is one of those states that looks like a good candidate on paper, but the Bluegrass State’s inability to execute has been disappointing. After losing a primary, Rep. Adam Koenig will not be there to shepherd a sports betting bill through the legislature in 2023, which means a new proponent will need to emerge.
Minnesota: A Tribal Tale
Minnesota came out of nowhere in 2022 and nearly pushed a sports betting bill across the finish line. But at the end of the day, efforts to include some commercial racetracks were enough for the state’s gaming tribes to walk away from the negotiating table.
Texas: 2023’s Dark Horse
Texas is a crown jewel of sports betting in the US. And while everyone is excited about Texas, the state has significant hurdles to overcome. The first is its culture. The Lone Star State has historically opposed gambling, evidenced by the lack of casinos in the state.
Further, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is expressly opposed to legalized gambling, and in Texas, the Lt. Gov. wields a lot of power and can singlehandedly determine which measures are brought to the floor for a vote.
The good news is there is a push to bring casino gambling to Texas, and if that push gains momentum, sports is likely to be tacked on to the legislation.
Will The Attention Turn To Online Casino And Poker?
The problem with rapid success is that very few sports betting targets are left on the map.
It’s a good problem to have, but in the current world of gambling, the saying, “if you’re not growing, you’re dying,” is a hard and fast rule. Maintaining the status quo is a surefire way to tank your stock, and the attention will turn elsewhere when sports betting is no longer providing the growth.
Similarly, history tells us that states are in constant need of money. The extra revenue from previous gambling expansions tends to slowly dwindle or no longer cover the cost of the programs it was designed to fund. As such, new money is needed, and the gambling well is easy to pump.
Legalizing sports betting while leaving online casino and poker illegal is like locking your back door and leaving the front door wide open.
That being said, the desire to legalize online casino games and poker is near non-existent.
My guess is that Steve would tell us maybe 1 state next year, 2 if we're lucky.
Not fast enough to stop this trend.
— Chris Grove (@OPReport) August 9, 2022
But there is a silver lining. As noted above, the current crop of sports betting candidates are trying to find compromises, and online poker or casino could be included, not as a way to bog down a bill but to reach a deal. That’s largely wishful thinking in 2023 but could be a key part of 2024 legislation.
