Super Bowl props are now filling odds boards at sportsbooks from coast to coast in advance of Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Throughout the week leading up to Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Props.com will offer up our five favorite Super Bowl props for each teams’ skill position group on offense, as well as our top five defensive, kicker/punter, and special teams props. We’ll also break down five game-specific props; best bets for player to score the first touchdown; and even our favorite cross-sport props.
Yes, consider us your one-stop prop shop for Rams vs. Bengals. So be sure to check back all week for comprehensive and (we hope!) compelling Super Bowl 56 betting coverage.
Next up: Our top five props involving Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 7.
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Total Passing Yards
The prop: 300+ passing yards
The odds: +150
This offering at BetMGM is a one-way prop — that is, there is no Over/Under or Yes/No component to it. But it’s worth considering because of the plus-money value BetMGM is offering, compared with its standard two-way passing yardage prop of 276.5 for Burrow.
Here’s why that value is appealing: Cincinnati’s sophomore quarterback has been feast or famine all season in this category. In 19 regular-season and playoff contests, Burrow has passed for 261 yards or fewer nine times and 300 yards or more seven times. On the other three occasions, Burrow landed within that range at 271, 281 and 282 yards.
So why roll the dice on Burrow posting a 300-plus-yard passing performance in his first Super Bowl? Because the game situation might require him to air it out. While the Rams fielded the sixth-best rushing defense in the NFL this season, they ranked 22nd against the pass, yielding 241.7 yards per game.
That number has dropped to 220.7 ypg in the playoffs, but two of the quarterbacks L.A. faced were Kyler Murray (who didn’t have DeAndre Hopkins) and Jimmy Garoppolo (who doesn’t have an accurate arm). On the other hand, Tom Brady torched the Rams for 329 passing yards.
There’s also this fact: If you discount a Week 5 game against Seattle in which Seahawks QB Russell Wilson departed early with an injury, the Rams have faced just five upper-echelon quarterbacks this season — Wilson (later in the season), Brady (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins. Corresponding passing yards allowed by L.A. in those games: 156, 432, 329, 307, 315.
So the question is: Do you think Burrow qualifies as an “upper-echelon” quarterback? Our answer: Yup.
Total Touchdown Passes
The prop: 1.5
The odds: Over -160/Under +120
The only time in his last five games that Burrow failed to toss at least two touchdowns, he spent 60 minutes either running for his life or flat on his back. In Cincinnati’s still incomprehensible 19-16 Divisional round victory at Tennessee, Burrow had a TD-to-sacked ratio of 0-9.
But in his three games prior to getting badgered by the Titans, the former Heisman Trophy winner had four TD passes against the Ravens (Week 16), four against the Chiefs (Week 17), and two against the Raiders (wild-card game). Then he notched two in the second half of the Bengals upset of Kansas City two Sundays ago.
Burrow also started the season with multiple TD passes in eight consecutive games (collecting two or three in each contest). It was a remarkable achievement considering he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the 10th game of his rookie campaign.
In all, Burrow has beaten this prop 13 times in 19 outings this season (including six of nine games away from Cincinnati). Can he do it again on Sunday? The juice on this prop says “absolutely,” but … it ain’t gonna be easy. That’s because while the Rams’ defense was leaky in terms of passing yardage in the regular season, it surrendered just 17 passing TDs. Only the Bills (12) allowed fewer.
True, Garoppolo found the end zone twice in the NFC Championship Game. But he’s the only quarterback to do that against L.A. since Rodgers in Week 12 (span of nine games).
Total Interceptions Thrown
The prop: 0.5
The odds: Over -130/Under -105
What’s the one thing almost every young NFL quarterback has in common — that is, besides purchasing a sportscar within 90 minutes of signing their rookie deal? They make a lot of mistakes.
Well, Joe Cool was an exception during his rookie season, when he threw only five picks (in 404 pass attempts). However, after a mistake-free game against the Vikings in Week 1 of the 2021 season, Burrow started to get generous with the pigskin — he threw interceptions in nine of his next 11 outings (13 picks in all).
From there, though, Burrow cleaned things up, going five consecutive games without an INT. His streak of throwing more than 150 passes without getting picked ended in the third quarter against the Titans three weeks ago on a controversial officials’ decision. Burrow then got picked again in the AFC title game.
So he’s now been thieved at least once in 11 of his 19 contests this season. And now here comes ball-hawking Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey and an opportunistic defense that tied for third in the NFL with 19 regular-season inceptions. That D has added four more in the playoffs (at least one in all three games).
The last quarterback to make it through a game against the Rams without getting picked off? You guessed it: Rodgers in Week 12.
Most Pass Attempts
The prop: Joe Burrow vs. Matthew Stafford
The odds: Burrow -140/Stafford +105
The juice on this head-to-head prop is certainly correlated to the Super Bowl 56 point spread. With the Rams remaining a consensus 4.5-point favorite, the presumption is the Bengals will be playing from behind most of the evening. Of course, if that theory holds up, Stafford will be doing a lot of handing off late in the game while Burrow will be forced to drop back and chuck it.
From a pure numbers perspective, Burrow — who sat out Cincinnati’s season finale at Cleveland — attempted 520 passes in the regular season and 109 in the playoffs. Stafford’s corresponding attempts are 601 and 100. So even while acknowledging Burrow has played one fewer game, he’s still 72 attempts behind his Super Bowl 56 counterpart.
As we noted in our Super Bowl props article featuring Stafford, the Rams’ veteran QB doesn’t frequently post huge completion numbers. However, he’s attempted at least 30 passes in 16 of 20 games and at least 37 in 11 of his last 18.
Meanwhile, Burrow’s right arm has gotten a superb workout in recent weeks. Since a 15-for-22 effort against Denver on Dec. 19, here are Burrow’s pass attempt totals: 46, 39, 34, 37 and 38. So it’s clear that Bengals coach Zac Taylor has gotten more comfortable letting his young quarterback (literally) shoulder the team’s offensive load.
Still, this Super Bowl prop almost certainly will be determined by the scoreboard. So if you like Cincinnati’s chances to keep things close, and possibly spring the outright upset, the value here lies with Stafford. If you expect a Rams runaway, Burrow is the play.
Total Rushing Yards
The prop: 11.5
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Burrow’s legs are nine years younger than Stafford’s, so it makes sense that the rushing yardage prop for the Bengals QB is about double that of his elder. But is the number justified?
Burrow scrambled for 25 yards (on five carries) against the Chiefs in the AFC title game. That’s after rushing for a combined three yards in playoff wins over the Raiders (minus-2) and Titans (5).
And while Burrow did collect double-digit rushing yards in each of his final three regular-season games against the Broncos, Ravens, and Chiefs, he amassed only 11 and 10 yards in the latter two contests.
Burrow erupted for a still career-high 46 rushing yards in his first NFL game in 2020, then had 19 yards the following week. In 27 games since, however, he’s has gone Over this prop number just six times, with half of those occurring this season.
Meanwhile, the Rams’ stout run defense has surrendered a combined 10 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in three playoff games. Want a bigger sample size? Here’s a breakdown of the rushing yards QBs have gained against Los Angeles in the last 15 games:
4 (Garoppolo), 0 (Brady), 6 (Murray), 1 (Garoppolo), 54 (Ravens’ Tyler Huntley), 17 (Cousins), 0 (Wilson), 61 (Murray), 10 (Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence), 0 (Rodgers), 1 (Garoppolo), 3 (Titans’ Ryan Tannehill), 0 (Texans’ Davis Mills), 3 (Lions’ Jared Goff), 4 (Giants’ Daniel Jones).
So while it makes sense that the Bengals’ game plan would involve moving Burrow around to neutralize the Rams’ fierce pass rush (and compensate for Cincy’s poor offensive line), that movement probably will be more lateral than forward.
Coming Tuesday: Top five Super Bowl rushing props for the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams.
