The two defenses playing in this week’s first NFL contest are pass-funnel units. However, not everyone will get in on the receiving game fun. Still, while one receiving under is highlighted, two overs for receivers are tantalizing in these Saints vs. Jaguars player props.
Saints vs. Jaguars Player Props
Editor’s Note: The following Thursday Night Football player props are listed on FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook.
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Thursday Night Football Player Props: Week 7
Here’s a trio of Saints vs. Jaguars player props I like for Thursday’s primetime matchup:
Evan Engram Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Evan Engram is a meaningful contributor to Jacksonville’s passing attack, averaging 50.2 receiving yards per game this season. However, he’s posted his two lowest yardage totals in the previous two games, amassing 28 in Week 5 and 41 in Week 6.
Engram is unlikely to turn it around this week in a tricky matchup. According to The 33rd Team, the Saints have permitted only 28.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Finally, barring a setback, it appears Trevor Lawrence will attempt to play through a knee sprain. The injury could impact his performance, and aggravation would result in C.J. Beathard tanking the production potential for Jacksonville’s pass-catching weapons.
Where to bet: Evan Engram Under 41.5 Receiving Yards | -115 Caesars Sportsbook
Chris Olave Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Chris Olave is balling. The second-year wideout is averaging 69.0 receiving yards per game with a median of 91 this season. He should have plenty of targets in a favorable matchup against Jacksonville’s pass-funnel defense.
First, according to RotoViz’s pace app, Jacksonville’s opponents have passed on 66% of their 167 plays in a neutral game script this year. Second, the matchup is stellar for Olave. According to The 33rd Team, Olave had his two highest rates playing wide in the previous two weeks, aligning there 50.0% of the time in Week 5 and 44.9% in Week 6.
Olave’s recent bump in usage on the perimeter could carry over against Jacksonville’s lousy coverage against receivers aligned wide. They’ve allowed Michael Pittman to torch them for 65 receiving yards (Week 1) and 92 (Week 6), Skyy Moore to post 63, Gabe Davis to pile up 100, and Stefon Diggs to eviscerate them for 118 strictly on their snaps aligned out wide. Olave should be the next player to smash against the Jaguars.
Where to bet: Chris Olave Over 61.5 Receiving Yards | -114 FanDuel Sportsbook
Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Alvin Kamara has been busy in New Orleans’s passing attack since returning from a three-game suspension. The skilled pass-catching running back has a median of 33 receiving yards in three games this season, putting him over 29.5 receiving yards twice in 2023.
Interestingly, the Saints have kicked their already pass-happy approach up to a 64% pass rate in neutral game scripts since Kamara debuted in Week 4, and the Saints’ willingness to cut Derek Carr loose meshes perfectly with Jacksonville’s pass-funnel tendencies.
Moreover, the matchup is ideal for Kamara’s receiving outlook. The Jaguars have permitted 40.5 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. So, Kamara should exceed 29.5 receiving yards again this week.
Where to bet: Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards | -113 Caesars Sportsbook
