The NFL ground game may not be nearly as important as it once was, as the NFL has evolved into a full passer’s league. But even still, four running backs went over 100 yards in Week 3, and there are a number of great running back props to consider this weekend.
Let’s take a look at the best running back props for NFL week 4!
Alvin Kamara – Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
The Saints have decided to lean heavily on Alvin Kamars in the early going, and it has resulted in games of 83 yards rushing against the Packers and 89 yards rushing against the Patriots.
The Giants defense gave up 101 yards and more than nine yards per carry to Melvin Gordon, and 69 yards to Antonio Gibson at 5.3 ypc. Nothing is a cinch for Kamara since he’ll also be used heavily in the passing game, but 69.5 rushing yards feels 10 yards too low.
Take Kamara to hit the over.
Nick Chubb – Over 81.5 Rushing Yards
Another over to bet is Nick Chubb. So far in 2021, sharing the backfield duties with Kareem Hunt has not hurt Chubb in the slightest. He is the clear number one, rushing for 83, 95, and 84 yards. And impressively, the consistency of those numbers has come against wildly inconsistent defenses, like the Chiefs, Texans, and Bears.
Minnesota gave up 127 rushing yards to Joe Mixon and 80 yards to Chris Carson on just 12 carries. There’s simply no way they slow down Chubb. He earns the over with close to 90 yards rushing.
Making matters even better, Chubb has gone over this mark in nine of the last 12 games Cleveland was favored.
Najee Harris – Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
Najee Harris looks like a good rookie running back, but the numbers haven’t come so far. His rushing totals for the first three games of his NFL career are 45, 38, and 40.
It’s hard to imagine a sudden explosion of offense in Pittsburgh that sees Harris’s numbers rise to 65 yards or beyond and not against Green Bay. Alvin Kamara ran for 83 against the Packers, but he needed 20 carries. And this last week against the 49ers, Trey Sermon managed just 31 yards on 10 carries. Kyle Juszcyzk got 14 yards on five carries.
Harris is once in the 40s, and you should bet the under.
Miles Sanders – Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
The Chiefs’ defense was slightly better against the run in Week 3, but their terrible performances in Weeks 1 and 2 still loom large and have undoubtedly influenced the game plan in Philadelphia.
Look for big running days from quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Miles Sanders. He went for 74 yards against the Falcons, and that is where his number is likely to hit against a Kansas City defense that gave up 83 yards to Nick Chubb and 77 yards to Ty’Son Williams.
Take Sanders to hit the over.
Damien Harris – Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
With the injury to James White, Damien Harris is the undisputed number one back in New England. But don’t let that fool you. Be it in a big win over the Jets or last week’s loss to the Saints, his workload doesn’t change much.
Bill Belichick isn’t bashful about letting his rookie quarterback throw the ball, and Mac Jones just had 51 passing attempts against the stout run defense of New Orleans.
He’ll do more of the same against the Bucs, and that keeps Harris under 65.5 rushing yards.