The NFL is back baby! The afternoon slate features four games to choose from, including an intriguing AFC West matchup between the Raiders and Chargers. These two teams played one of the most exciting games of the year in Week 18 last season, which ultimately saw the Raiders grab a postseason spot while leaving the Chargers on the outside looking in.
Both teams enter the new year with playoff aspirations. The Raiders made a big splash by acquiring WR Davante Adams from the Packers, while Chargers QB Justin Herbert will be looking to join the league’s elite quarterbacks in his third professional season.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in with these Raiders vs. Chargers predictions.
Raiders vs. Chargers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | +3.5 (-105) | +155 | O 52.5 (-110) |
| at Chargers | -3.5 (-115) | -180 | U 52.5 (-110) |
Odds via Betway as of 12 p.m. ET on Sept. 7.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 11
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
- TV: CBS
Raiders vs. Chargers Trends
- The Chargers were 9-8 last season (8-9 against the spread).
- The Raiders were 10-7 last season (8-9 against the spread).
- Road underdogs are 82-57-7 against the spread in AFC West games since the start of 2003.
- Teams that didn’t make the postseason are 137-121-6 against the spread when facing a team that made the playoffs in Week 1.
- Justin Herbert is 5-9 against the spread as a favorite of at least three points.
- The over was 10-7 in Chargers games last season, tied for the second-best mark in the league.
- As of Wednesday, DraftKings reports that 51% of the spread bets and 48% of handle have landed on the Raiders.
- For the total, 68% of the bets and 77% of the handle are on the over.
Can Davante Adams Take Offense To Next Level?
Derek Carr has always been an underappreciated quarterback. He’s played on some bad teams and doesn’t put up the gaudiest statistics, but he’s been above average from an efficiency standpoint over the past four years. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’s No. 13 quarterback last season.
However, expectations are higher than they’ve ever been for Carr heading into this season. He’s been reunited with college teammate Davante Adams, who is one of the best receivers in the league. Adams has obviously benefitted from playing with Aaron Rodgers, but he’s racked up 238 catches, more than 2,900 yards, and 29 touchdowns in his past 30 games.
JC Jackson is not expected to be ready for Week 1 against the Raiders.
Davante Adams is going to go off! https://t.co/n1RYB7kOhj
— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) September 7, 2022
Pairing Adams with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow gives Carr an outstanding trio of pass-catchers. It will be up to him to push the offense to another level. They were 19th in offensive DVOA last year, and that number will not be acceptable in 2022-23.
Can The Chargers Finally Put It Together?
The Chargers have been disappointing their fan base for nearly two decades. Talent hasn’t been an issue: between Phillip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates, they’ve had more than enough talent to make a deep postseason run. However, they’ve made the playoffs just twice in the past 12 seasons, and they’ve failed to make it past the divisional round.
Once again, expectations are high for the Chargers heading into the new year. All the hype comes from Herbert, who is a trendy MVP pick heading into his third year. He’s been outstanding in his first two years, and he racked up 5,014 passing yards and 38 touchdown passes last season. He has the arm to make every throw, and he has the potential to become one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert in first 2 seasons of career:
All-Time Rank
Pass yds 9,350 1st
Pass TD 69 1st pic.twitter.com/6PyyjqL2Eb— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 7, 2022
Unfortunately, Herbert’s production hasn’t led to many wins. They did jump from six wins in his rookie year to nine wins last season, but he still has a losing record for his career.
Of course, Herbert isn’t solely to blame for their struggles. He did turn the ball over frequently last year – his 15 picks were tied for the third-highest mark in the league – but the bigger issue was the defense. They brought in Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to improve that unit in the offseason, but they’ll have a lot of work to do. The Chargers finished 26th in defensive DVOA last year, including 30th against the run.
Is this the year that the Chargers finally live up to expectations, or will it be the same old story? Only time will tell, but they have the pieces to make a return trip to the playoffs.
Week 1 NFL Props: Justin Bales pinpoints the best NFL player props for Week 1, including a severely underrated running back.
Raiders vs. Chargers Predictions
The big x-factor in this contest is the schedule. The Chargers travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, which is one of their biggest games of the year. I don’t think they’ll necessarily overlook the Raiders, but it’s impossible to completely ignore that looming matchup.
Additionally, Jackson is not expected to suit up in this contest (see earlier tweet), which is a big blow. He’s the only corner on the Chargers’ roster than earned a top-60 grade at the position per PFF last season. That’s not exactly what you’re looking for ahead of a matchup with arguably the best receiver in the league.
I’m also going to need to see it from the Chargers before I actually believe in them. They’ve been loaded with talent for much of the past two decades, but they consistently find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Between poor coaching, missed field goals, and penalties, there isn’t a way to lose a ballgame that the Chargers haven’t found.
Perhaps this will be a turning point for the Chargers franchise, but I’ll take my chances with the Raiders and the points.
Pick: Raiders +3.5 | -105 on Betway Sportsbook