Last week’s quarterback play had it all. Nine different starting quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards, while five others failed to break even 200 yards. And here are this week’s best quarterback prop bets to go over (or under) their posted line.
Let’s take a glance at the best quarterback props for NFL week 4.
Zach Wilson – Over 216.5 Passing Yards
The Jets offense is the worst in the NFL so far, scoring a grand total of 20 points. Zach Wilson’s struggles are a huge part of that. He posted 258 yards in his NFL debut but dropped to 210 yards the next week followed by 160 yards last Sunday. Yikes!
So why are we looking over here? Put simply, we are picking on the shortcomings of Tennessee’s pass defense. In 2021 they are giving up 275 passing yards per game. Coupled with a high-scoring Titans offense, the Jets will keep passing, and Wilson should rack up decent yardage. He probably won’t hit 275, but the Jets’ QB should easily fly over the 217 needed to win this bet.
Jared Goff – Under 259.5 Passing Yards
A furious comeback in Week 1 put Jared Goff over this line. However, Goff fell short of this mark in both of his next two games (at Green Bay, vs. Baltimore). Dating back to last season, when he was with a much better offense with the Rams, he has been under his passing total in four of five games.
Now he gets the Bears defense, who gave up big numbers to Matthew Stafford in Week 1 but played much better against Joe Burrow (207 yards) and Baker Mayfield (246 yards).
This will be a low-scoring game between two bottom-tier offenses, which should keep Goff under 260 yards. BetPrep’s projection of 244 passing yards agrees with this analysis.
Josh Allen – Under 263.5 Passing Yards
The Bills will crush the Texans this weekend. After all, they are favored by a whopping 17.5 points! Since losing to Pittsburgh, the Bills shut out the Dolphins and won easily over Washington.
Traditionally, we’d be looking for Allen to hit over 263.5 passing yards. He’s certainly more than capable. However, this game will be out of hand from the second quarter on, and there won’t be a need for Allen to keep throwing. Much like with Buffalo’s 35-0 win in Miami, when Allen threw for a season-low 179 yards, he will stay under 250 passing yards.
Justin Herbert – Over 289.5 Passing Yards
Justin Herbert has gone over 289 passing yards in 11 of 18 stars in his young career, which is 61% of the time. That, in and of itself, is a great reason to like Herbert hit the over this weekend against the Raiders.
Keep in mind that Herbert is averaging 318 yards per game this season, and he went for 337 yards against a decent Washington defense. Then think that the Raiders gave up 295 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger, who can’t throw nearly as hard or as far as Herbert. This should lead to an easy conclusion to bet Herbert over 289.5 yards.
Baker Mayfield – Over 259.5 Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield hasn’t hit the over since Week 1 in Kansas City when he threw for 321 yards. But in a blowout win against the Bears in which he was always starting with a short field, he threw for 246. This weekend against a good Minnesota offense that will keep pace with Cleveland, he will throw more, have more yards to gain, and easily hit the over.
If the Vikings were only to give up 260 passing yards, which would win your bet, it would be Minnesota’s best performance of the season.
