Dubbs Anderson, former PGA Tour caddy and host of the Props Golf podcast, cashed his “plus-money peaches” at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. Now he’s back with more best bets, props and sleeper picks for the PGA Championship, which starts Thursday. In addition to this PGA Championship betting preview, Dubbs will release an episode Friday with his PGA best bets and situations heading into the weekend.
With that, let’s check out Dubbs’ top PGA Championship picks and best bets across the golf betting markets.
Odds updated as of 11:55 a.m. ET on May 18.
2022 PGA Championship Picks
This event will be played at the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Defending champ Phil Mickelson initially entered the tournament but withdrew late last week. However, Tiger Woods is in the field, with +7000 odds for an outright win.
Dubbs believes this course could be tough, predicting the winning score to be around 6- to 7-under par. He said distance off the tee will be important, but the short game will be absolutely crucial. For that reason, Dubbs is keeping a close eye on guys with favorable ratings in strokes gained around the green.
The following are edited excerpts of Anderson’s analysis from the latest episode of Props Golf, which he hosts twice weekly.
Rory McIlroy Top 20 Finish (-135)
Best odds available: -135 at FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks
Dubbs’ Take: This is our PGA Championship pick of the week. He’s not a great bet as the outright winner, but I think he’s found enough of a groove for a top-20 finish at Southern Hills.
McIlroy looked great at The Masters (second) last month and in his tuneup at the Wells Fargo Championship (fifth) two weeks ago.
You could argue that McIlroy is the most talented golfer on the PGA Tour. If he can find confidence and overcome the mental part of the game, there’s reason to believe the 33-year-old can make a push this weekend.
On top of that, McIlroy sets up well at Southern Hills. Strokes gained around the green is an important stat for a course like this, and McIlroy ranks 14th in that regard.
You can currently find McIlroy for a top-20 finish with -135 odds at DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s better than laying -140 at Caesars. Always shop for the best line!
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Cameron Smith Outright Winner +2200
Best odds available: +2200 at Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM
Dubbs’ Take: I really think Smith bounces back here after he missed the cut in his last event, the RBC Heritage on April 14.
We can’t forget Smith’s outstanding form prior to that disappointment. The Aussie won The Players Championship in mid-March and followed that up with a third-place showing at The Masters in early April. If Smith can rekindle that form, he could make a serious push up the leaderboard.
The PGA Championship is almost upon us and @Mrdubbsie is rolling with Cameron Smith outright at 22-1 on Props Golf presented by @Fliff. Pump some AC/DC and crack open a cold Carlton, because it's all about the Aussies. #ad
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Smith is seventh in strokes gained on approach and fourth in strokes gained putting. He also leads the PGA Tour in birdies. In other words, he has the skillset to make it through a tough course like Southern Hills.
On top of getting a slice of him in the outright market, I also like Smith for a top-10 finish. You can find the best price for that (+250) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
As for Smith’s odds to win the PGA Championship, they’ve shortened up in the last 24 hours. He went from +3500 to +2200 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is also where you’ll find Smith at BetMGM. That’s still better value than you’ll get at DraftKings (+1800) and FanDuel (+2100).
Related: Where’s the money flowing? Check out Patrick Everson’s PGA Championship Action Report to find out which golfers are taking the most betting tickets and money prior to the event.
Sam Burns Outright Winner (+5000)
Best odds available: +5000 at DraftKings
Dubbs’ Take: Burns is still listed at 50-1 to win the PGA Championship at DraftKings. That’s great value for a three-time winner on the PGA Tour with his most recent triumph coming a few months ago at the Valspar Championship.
Burns missed the cut in his last two events, the Masters and AT&T Byron Classic. However, that’s why we are seeing such appealing odds for him at the PGA Championship. If he can regain his form from two months ago, then this 50/1 price tag will make for an incredible bargain.
We need to consider that Burns ranked top 10 in total strokes gained prior to last week. He’s a gamer who is pushing on that elite status, and he knows what it takes to win if things are going his way. That’s what we are looking for when investing a slice in a longshot.
You can find Burns at 50/1 at DraftKings. That beats 48/1 at FanDuel and 40/1 at both BetMGM and Caesars.
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More PGA Championship Picks
Dubbs Anderson offers additional PGA Championship picks and other wagering-related strategies in the latest episode of Props Golf, including:
- Three sleepers for outright winner bets
- A pair of potential longshot winners
- Head-to-Head Matchup Picks
- PGA Championship Props
- Best Bets for a Top 20/40 Finish
- Fade Plays
Watch/listen to the full episode on Youtube (Part 1 AND Part 2), or simply press play on the videos below. You can also listen to Props Golf on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Don’t forget to subscribe to receive an update when Dubbs drops his live PGA Championship picks on Friday!