The Bills are a passing first, second, and third team at its core. The matchup against the Patriots looks tricky at a glance, but it might not be. Thus, two of the upcoming Patriots vs. Bills player props are overs for Buffalo’s passing attack. However, a rushing prop is also enticing. Let’s dive in!
Patriots vs. Bills Player Props: TNF Week 13
For a full list of Patriots vs. Bills player props and odds, check out our dedicated matchup page.
Josh Allen Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-114)
According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are third in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Thus, they have an elite pass defense, right? That’s not necessarily true. Football Outsiders’ metric adjusts for the level of competition. Still, the Patriots have faced a comically-bad collection of signal callers, including opposing Zach Wilson (twice), Mitchell Trubisky, Sam Ehlinger, and Jared Goff, with Amon-Ra St. Brown playing through an ankle injury.
New England hasn’t been as impressive against competent quarterbacks. Most recently, Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 37 passes for 299 yards. The Vikings also weren’t concerned with New England’s supposedly excellent pass defense, airing it 38 times versus 26 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script last week.
Meanwhile, the Bills have a pass-centric offense, even with Josh Allen playing through an elbow injury. The Bills have attempted 93 passes and 49 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 10. The Bills have also kept their foot on the accelerator in blowout wins. They’ve attempted 75 passes and just 51 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by at least eight points this year.
Moreover, Allen has passed for more than 265.5 yards in six of 11 games this year, and he’s carved up the Patriots in recent meetings. In his last four outings against the Patriots, Allen has passed for 308, 314, 145, and 320 yards. The clunker in the four-game mix was during last year’s insanely windy game. So, I’ll take his over for 265.5 passing yards.
Where to bet: Josh Allen Over 265.5 Passing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Isaiah McKenzie Over 2.5 Receptions (-140)
Isaiah McKenzie hasn’t been a model of consistency this year. However, he had six receptions last week and four in Week 10. Buffalo’s slot wideout might be leaned on heavily again this week since it appears left tackle Dion Dawkins will miss this game.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dawkins is Buffalo’s best pass protector. Therefore, the Bills might attempt to mitigate blindside protection concerns by getting the ball out of Allen’s hands quickly, and McKenzie would benefit from such a game plan.
The matchup is also promising. According to PFF, the Patriots yielded six receptions on seven targets in slot coverage last week. Further, McKenzie terrorized the Patriots last year, reeling in 11 receptions in Week 16 and securing three in the Wild Card round of the playoffs against them. It’s a little chalky to bet over 2.5 receptions for McKenzie. Still, it’s not too chalky to dissuade me from doing so.
Where to bet: Isaiah McKenzie Over 2.5 Receptions | -140 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Allen is Buffalo’s most productive runner, and he hasn’t slowed down while playing through his elbow injury, rumbling for 84, 7, and 78 yards in the previous three games. He’s rushed for more than 42.5 yards seven times this year, with a median outcome of 56 rushing yards.
The probable absence of Dawkins might force Allen to scramble more often this week on called passing plays. Additionally, the Bills have called plenty of designed runs for him this year. The matchup is also intriguing.
Lamar Jackson steamrolled the Patriots for 107 rushing yards in Week 3, and Justin Fields rushed for 82 yards in Week 7. Might the Bills take a page out of Baltimore’s and Chicago’s playbook of successfully running their quarterbacks against New England? Maybe. Finally, Allen’s rushed for 66 and 64 yards in his last two games against the Patriots, cementing my faith in him rushing for more than 42.5 yards against them this week.
Where to bet: Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook