Padres Vs Brewers Odds: Tight Game Expected Among NL Elite

Milwaukee Brewers right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser follows through on a delivery with his right leg in the air May 23, 2022, in San Diego.
Image Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers have already penciled themselves into the thick of the National League playoff race this season.

The Brewers lead the NL Central, and the Padres are only three games behind the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West. Record-wise, Milwaukee and San Diego are two of the four NL teams — and two of the six in MLB overall — with winning percentages of .600 or better. However, both are struggling a bit heading into a four-game weekend series in Milwaukee.

Which team has the edge in a battle that features two capable starters and a pick ’em moneyline? breaks down Padres vs Brewers odds for Thursday’s series opener.

MLB Odds

San Diego Padres (Manaea)-110-220 (+1.5 runs)8.5 (Over -110)
Milwaukee Brewers (Houser)+100+180 (-1.5 runs)8.5 (Under -110)

Odds via WynnBet as of 12:25 p.m. ET on June 2.

San Diego Padres (30-20) vs Milwaukee Brewers (32-20)

San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado, left, argues with umpire Chris Segal, right, with back to camera, after being ejected May 31, 2022, in St. Louis.
Image Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

First pitch/TV: 7:40 p.m. ET/MLB.TV
Betting stats: Despite getting swept in a three-game series at St. Louis to start this week, San Diego remains the third-most profitable team in MLB at +5.68 units. Milwaukee ranks 11th at +2.17 units.
Pitching matchup: LHP Sean Manaea (2-3, 4.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs RHP Adrian Houser (3-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)
Season series: The Brewers lead 2-1, winning a series at Petco Park from May 23-25. The teams did not combine for more than five runs in any game, tallying just 13 runs in all.

Did you know: The Padres and Brewers are two of six MLB franchises that have never won a World Series. San Diego lost the World Series in 1984 and 1998, and Milwaukee lost in 1982.

About the Padres

Hits & Misses: San Diego has lost three straight and four of five, but didn’t lose much ground in the division because the Dodgers were simultaneously — and stunningly — swept at home by the lowly Pirates. The Padres have scored four runs or fewer in nine straight games, losing six of those nine (including two to Milwaukee). They scored two runs or fewer in five of those contests. San Diego 3B Manny Machado remains the favorite to win the NL MVP award, hitting .344/.422/.556 with eight home runs and 29 RBIs. Amid the offensive downturn, the Padres have gone 7-0-2 to the Under in their past nine and are 28-20-2 to the Under for the season (but 14-11 to the Over on the road).

Manaea vs Brewers: Acquired from Oakland right before the start of the season, Manaea is right in line with his solid career numbers in his first season in the National League. The hard-throwing lefty has allowed more than three runs in just two of his nine starts. At the same time, he has not allowed fewer than three runs in any of his last six outings dating to April 18. Manaea owns a 60-19 K/BB ratio, and the Padres are 4-5  this season when he pitches (2-3 on the road). Manaea’s only career start against Milwaukee came back in 2016.

Key injuries: OF Will Myers didn’t play Wednesday in St. Louis after getting an injection in his inflamed left knee. He’s questionable for Thursday’s game. … OF Matt Beaty (left shoulder impingement) has been shut down from his rehab assignment at Triple-A El Paso, and the timetable for his return is uncertain.

About the Brewers

Hits & Misses: Milwaukee is 14-6 at home and opens a seven-game homestand Thursday. The Brewers are coming off a 6-5 road trip that included taking two of three in San Diego. Although it finished the trip by dropping a pair of one-run games at the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday, Milwaukee still holds a two-game lead over St. Louis in the NL Central. The Brewers rank 21st in baseball in team batting average (.233) but lead the majors with 70 home runs. That power has been spread throughout the lineup, led by 1B Rowdy Tellez’s 10 HRs. Two players currently on the injured list — SS Willy Adames and RF Hunter Renfroe — each have nine HRs. The Brewers are also fifth in team ERA (3.33), with the Padres right behind in sixth (3.44). Milwaukee is 25-22-5 to the Under for the season (10-9 Under at home).

Houser vs Padres: Houser had a rough May (4.68 ERA) after a solid April (2.53). The Brewers have lost the right-hander’s past four starts, but he allowed only one run combined in two of those defeats. One of them was against the Padres, when Houser yielded one run on three hits in six innings in a 3-2 extra-innings loss on May 23. In Houser’s last outing Saturday, he gave up eight runs (five earned) in four innings in an 8-3 loss at St. Louis. His K/BB ratio is also a bit alarming at 1.8 (36 to 20), but the 29-year-old has been far better at home (1.99 ERA in four starts) than on the road (5.32 ERA in five outings). Houser received no-decisions in two starts against San Diego last season, but he allowed only two runs in a combined 9.2 innings. The Brewers won both games.

Key injuries: Renfroe (hamstring) is expected to be activated Friday when he’s eligible to come off the 10-day IL. … Adames (ankle) is on a rehab assignment in Triple-A Nashville but didn’t play earlier this week because of a quad issue. There’s no timetable for his return. … 2B Kolten Wong played Wednesday after missing the previous game with an upper-body injury. … SP Brandon Woodruff (ankle) this week joined fellow SP Freddy Peralta (shoulder) on the 15-day IL. Both are out indefinitely.

Notable Trends

  • SD is on positive runs of 13-6 on the road and 5-1 in series openers
  • SD is 2-5 in its last seven vs. the NL Central (St. Louis and Milwaukee)
  • MIL is on positive runs of 6-2 overall, 7-2 at home and 5-1 in series openers
  • MIL is 2-6 in its last eight vs. the NL West
  • Under is 7-0-2 in SD’s last nine overall
  • Under is 5-2-1 in SD’s last eight road games
  • Over is 4-1 in MIL’s last five overall (following a 7-1 Under stretch)
  • MIL is 10-4 in its last 14 against SD
  • Under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings (3-0 this year)

Padres vs Brewers Odds and Action

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET: On Wednesday afternoon, Milwaukee opened as a -120 chalk in WynnBet’s Padres vs Brewers odds market. By late this morning, the moneyline dipped to a -105 pick ’em, then in the past half hour completed a flip, moving to Padres -110/Brewers even. The Brewers are netting 63% of tickets, but 67% of cash is on the Padres.

The total opened at 8.5, spent time at various iterations of 8, then went to 8.5 (-115) midafternoon. However, in the past hour the total dropped to 8 (Over -120). The Under is drawing 53% of bets, while 61% of money is on the Over.

UPDATE 12:25 P.M. ET: DraftKings opened this game at Milwaukee -120/San Diego +100 on the moneyline. That price shortened to Milwaukee -115/San Diego -105 late Wednesday night ET, then adjusted to the current odds of -110 both ways several hours ago. Early action on the Padres vs Brewers odds board at DraftKings favors Milwaukee at 58% tickets/65% cash.

The runline opened Brewers (-1.5) +165/Padres (+1.5) -195 and bounced up and down before settling at the current number of Brewers +150/Padres -170. Milwaukee is seeing the bulk of the runline action at 73% tickets and a whopping 92% cash.

DraftKings initially set the total at 8/Under -120, flipped the juice to Over -115, then bumped the number to 8.5/Under -120, where it currently sits. Bettors are split on the total, with 54% of the bets on the Under and 78% of the money on the Over.

Check back prior to first pitch for additional updates on Padres vs Brewers odds and action.