Oklahoma State will travel to Baylor to take on the Bears in a rematch of the Big 12 Championship Game from last season. If you recall, Baylor emerged victorious 21-16 in a wild game that went down to the wire. Will the OSU Cowboys get revenge this time around, or will Baylor use its home-field advantage to pull out a victory?
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Oklahoma State vs. Baylor predictions.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | +2.5 (-110) | +110 | O 57 (-110) |
| @ Baylor | -2.5 (-110) | -130 | U 57 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. ET on Sep. 28.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 1
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: McLane Stadium – Waco, TX
- TV: FOX
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for the Oklahoma State vs. Baylor game:
- Oklahoma State owns a 2-1 ATS record in 2022.
- Baylor boasts a 3-1 ATS record this season.
- As of Tuesday afternoon, 64% of the bets and 74% of the handle were on Baylor -2.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 75% of the bets and 58% of the handle is on over 57 points.
- Oklahoma State’s posted a 2-1 over/under record this season.
- Baylor owns a 2-2 over/under record in 2022.
Run Defenses
The key to this game will be the run defenses for each team. Phil Steele projected that both teams will focus heavily on the run in 2022. That’s been the case, as Baylor’s running the ball nearly 60% of the time, while Oklahoma State is running on nearly 50% of their plays.
Oklahoma State boasts a more versatile running game. They rely heavily on Dominic Richardson to be their workhorse running back, but Spencer Sanders is also dominant with his legs. Baylor utilizes both Richard and Craig Williams as solid running backs, but they don’t have a quarterback that will threaten with his legs.
These were Phil Steele’s best-projected run defenses before the season. He projected them to give up the 12th- (Oklahoma State) and 13th-fewest (Baylor) rushing yards in the NCAA this season. This has been the case at the start of the season.
Baylor’s allowing only 77 rushing yards per game in 2022. Oklahoma State’s allowing 126.5 rushing yards per game thus far. The bigger key is that the Bears are allowing the sixth-fewest yards per carry (2.5) in the NCAA. The Cowboys are allowing the 26th-fewest yards per carry (3.3) thus far.
Baylor’s flashed the ability to slow down running quarterbacks, which will be a key to this game. They held Reese Poffenbarger to only 3.8 yards per carry in their game against Albany. More importantly, they held Jaren Hall to only 28 yards on 10 carries against BYU.
Level Of Competition
The level of competition drastically changes how both of these teams play. That’s the case with many college teams, but we know it’s true for both of the Big 12 teams.
Baylor scored 69 and 42 points against Albany and Texas State. They also gave up 17 total points in those games. They totaled 46 points in a top-25 matchup against BYU earlier this season. They also totaled 55 points against Iowa State last week.
This Baylor offense doesn’t boast as much upside against better defenses. Their defense has flashed the ability to step up and keep them in the game, though.
Oklahoma State scored 58 and 63 points in easy matchups against Central Michigan and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. They allowed 51 points in those games with the majority of that coming to Central Michigan. In their only “difficult” matchup, Oklahoma State combined for 51 points against Arizona State. They scored 34 points, holding ASU to 17 points.
Similar to Baylor, Oklahoma State’s defense has the ability to step up in difficult matchups and slow down their opponents’ offenses.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Predictions
Both of these offenses are going to try to run the ball. They’re likely to struggle, though. This is the most important aspect of this game total. The lack of success will put them in more difficult situations on later downs. Running the ball will also keep the clock running.
Baylor is the favorite in this game, and they’ll want to control the pace. They don’t have the offense to get into a shootout with Oklahoma State, and their ability to contain Sanders will be the key to the total.
Overall, the lack of rushing potential in this matchup will help hit the under on this massive total.
Pick: Under 57 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook