One of my favorite NFL props of the week is San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel to go over his receiving yards line.
On most books, Samuel’s line is set at 63.5 yards, and against the Colts, there’s good reason to think he’ll easily exceed it. Let’s break down why.
The Opposing Defense
The Colts have been one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this season, and to make matters worse, they just lost their star safety, Julian Blackmon, to a torn Achilles.
On the year, Indy ranks 28th in opposing yards per pass attempt, which I often find is the most indicative passing statistic to quantify the quality of a team’s unit.
Indianapolis has also allowed five of the last seven receivers they’ve faced to hit their over, showing the leaks this secondary has.
Deebo’s Role In This Offense
It may surprise you to know that Deebo Samuel ranks inside the top ten of target leaders, despite San Francisco already having their bye.
Samuel leads the Niners in targets with 52, 24 more than the next closest player. As the clear top option in the passing game, it shouldn’t take many catches for Samuel to cross over his modest 63.5-yard line.
His Season’s Output
The last contributing factor that makes Samuel’s over one of my favorites of the week is just how many yards he’s gotten this year.
In three games this season, Samuel has absolutely blown by this number, finishing the games with totals of 189, 93, and 156.
He’s shown the ability to stack yards in a hurry, and with an established role in the offense and against a soft defense, Samuel is a solid bet on Sunday.
Load up the Niners pass-catcher confidently when planning out your Week 7 player props.
