One intriguing NFL prop betting option in Week 9 comes in the form of the Philadelphia Eagles offense.
I’ll add the caveat that the Eagles have run out some confusing gameplans in recent weeks, but this Sunday, there’s a clear advantage for Philly against the Chargers.
Let’s break down the specific advantage and the players set to benefit.
Philly’s Run Game Edge
When planning props, I tend to build backward from poor defenses, and you won’t find a worse run defense than what the Chargers employ.
Los Angeles ranks dead-last in rushing yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and rushes of 20+ yards allowed.
They let up nearly 160 rushing yards per game to opponents and have let up more than 141 yards in all but two games this season.
#Chargers Run Defense… Woof
🔹Rush Yds BEFORE CONTACT: 430 (32nd)
🔹Rush Yds AFTER CONTACT: 705 (29th)…it's hard to be terrible at both. Usually it's one or the other
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) November 3, 2021
Next up is the Eagles, who are fresh off a 44-6 dismantling of the Detroit Lions. The Eagles’ recipe for success in that one? Physically impose their will along the trenches and establish the run.
Is this an identity shift for Philly? They’d be well-suited to trot out a similar strategy against this porous Chargers run defense.
Philadelphia is third in the NFL in rush yards per attempt, though we should note that number is inflated by Jalen Hurts and his propensity to tuck it and run.
Still, there’s value to be had on Sunday betting on this run game.
The Players Worth A Look
When Miles Sanders was lost for a few weeks two Sundays ago, it was assumed that rookie running back Kenneth Gainwell would take the bulk of the work against the Lions.
That ended up not being the case, as Gainwell was very clearly RB3 in Week 8, playing behind Boston Scott and Jordan Howard.
It’s peculiar and admittedly makes it tough to project a reliable player on Sunday.
Both Scott and Howard scored twice against Detroit and averaged 5.0 and 4.8 yards per carrying, respectively.
Nick Sirianni says he has been in contact with Jordan Howard and wants to keep all good players
Boston Scott started and got a lot of carries. Nick says he will always ride the hot hand at running back pic.twitter.com/pQDQD0cLT7
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 1, 2021
They ran confidently and powerfully, and one has to think they’re going to get similar chances against this defense.
They each saw 12 carries, so this is a shared backfield.
The best value on Sunday may be to bet each to score a touchdown. At plus-odds, you need just one to score to end in profit, and there’s a chance they both find the end zone again against this vulnerable Chargers unit.
