This Thursday is shaping up to be another great game, as the Chiefs and Chargers battle it out for first place in the AFC West. If Kansas City wins, the division is all but wrapped up. If Los Angeles wins, they move to the top by virtue of a tiebreaker. Because of that, look for all the stars playing in this one to bring their A-games. Let’s break down the top NFL player props within this intriguing matchup.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep updated 5 a.m. ET on Dec. 15.
Patrick Mahomes Vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Prop: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 294.5 yards (-116) / Under 294.5 yards (-114)
When the Chiefs and Chargers met at the end of September, Patrick Mahomes threw for 260 yards, three touchdowns, and more importantly for the outcome of the game: two interceptions. But that was during Kansas City’s 3-4 start and when Mahomes felt pressure to be perfect because his defense was terrible.
Things have obviously changed since then. Kansas City’s defense has turned the corner, and the Chiefs are now playing to that strength. Play good defense, utilize the running and short passing game, and take what the defense gives you.
That style has resulted in six straight wins for Kansas City but lower passing yards for Mahomes. Look for him to have a good game, but taking the UNDER on his passing yard prop is the safer bet.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Justin Herbert Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Prop: Justin Herbert Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 301.5 yards (-115) / Under 301.5 yards (-115)
In that first game at Arrowhead Stadium this season, Justin Herbert threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns. If you recall, the Chargers ended up winning that game on a late touchdown.
Herbert was his usual self then, as he has been most of the season. As a team, the Chargers haven’t been consistent since early October, but their back-and-forth from week to week has rarely affected him. Plus-300-yard games have been the norm, topping that mark seven times this season as well as three times in his last four games.
Undeniable arm talent.
This Justin Herbert pass traveled 63.8 yards in the air.
(second longest completion of the season, per @NextGenStats)pic.twitter.com/mWQkmNFftB
— NFL (@NFL) December 13, 2021
This Chiefs defense is coming off a game in which they recorded 22 quarterback pressures, and the Chargers may be without their great rookie left tackle, Rashawn Slater. Having said that, it’s hard to not like Herbert. He should see plenty of volume to make a push at this passing yardage total.
Take the OVER.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Prop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards
The Odds: Over 60.5 yards (-112) / Under 60.5 yards (-118)
For all of the great pass catchers playing Thursday night, the running game is going to play a huge role in the outcome.
When these teams played earlier, Chiefs running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 100 yards on just 17 carries. He followed that up with a second consecutive 100-yard game at Philadelphia.
L.A.’s run defense has been improving but still isn’t great, ranking 31st overall and 20th over the last three weeks. And since he returned from injury, Edwards-Helaire is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Give him those same 17 carries that he received back in Week 3, and he easily hits this OVER.