For the first time since Week 3, Tom Brady was your passing yardage leader. And the 368 yards and four touchdowns he threw in Week 13 has put him back in the driver’s seat for the NFL MVP award. Can he keep it up in Week 14? We’ll dive into that and more NFL player props for quarterbacks below.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 6 a.m. ET on Dec. 8.
Tom Brady Vs. Buffalo Bills
The Prop: Tom Brady Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 319.5 yards (-114) / Under 319.5 yards (-116)
It’s tough to glean too much about the Bills passing defense now that cornerback Tre’Davious White is out. They played in a blizzard warning on Monday night, and the Patriots attempted just three passes against them. So while the yardage total allowed was impressive, it was meaningless.
So to evaluate this prop, let’s just look at Tom Brady. He is averaging 314 yards passing a game, and he’s gone for over 300 yards in five games this season. So that is a very big line for Brady to cross, even as good as he is playing.
Make that six 300-yard passing games for @TomBrady this season. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/Nh2FmG7fAE
— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2021
Plus, the Bills are averaging 176 yards allowed on the ground over the last three games, which makes one think the Bucs will have success on the ground, and Brady will throw a little less than normal.
Jared Goff Vs. Denver Broncos
The Prop: Jared Goff Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 230.5 yards (-114) / Under 230.5 yards (-118)
Don’t be fooled by Jared Goff’s big day against the Vikings last week. He is still a limited quarterback in a limited offense, and against a good secondary like the Broncos, he will struggle.
Goff had 296 against the Vikings, but prior to that, he threw for 171, 114, and 222. The Broncos defense just held Patrick Mahomes to 184 yards and recently held Jalen Hurts to 178 and Dak Prescott to 232.
Goff and the Lions finally getting a win was a feel-good story last week. But the Denver secondary is one of the best in the NFL, and they will look like it on Sunday against the Lions.
Joe Burrow Vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Prop: Joe Burrow Passing Yards
The Odds: Over 258.5 yards (-114) / Under 258.5 yards (-118)
Joe Burrow is coming off a 300-yard game against the Chargers, but don’t get too carried away in extrapolating that out to this game against the 49ers.
If Burrow was to get to even 250 yards passing, he would be the first quarterback to get to that mark against the Niners since Aaron Rodgers in Week 3.
Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson twice, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins, have all thrown for fewer than 250 yards in their games against the 49ers’ defense.
For Burrow, his numbers will be further repressed by Joe Mixon, who should get plenty of carries on the ground. He struggled last week, pushing Burrow’s pass attempts higher, but don’t look for Mixon to have two tough games in a row.
The 49ers keeping Burrow UNDER is an excellent bet.
