It is the standard that Patrick Mahomes has set for himself. He’s over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, and he has the Chiefs back in position to win home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. He’s fourth in the NFL in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns.
Yet it’s the interceptions that keep getting talked about. His 13 picks this season are a career-high, and he’s now thrown interceptions in 10 of his 14 starts. It’s also become a good prop bet in which to make money.
All odds via BetPrep as of 6 a.m. ET on Dec. 23.
Patrick Mahomes Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Prop: Patrick Mahomes Interceptions
The Odds: Over 0.5 yards (-141)/Under 0.5 yards (-110)
As a general rule, interceptions are random occurrences. A quarterback can have a great game and still throw interceptions. Mahomes was at his best last week against the Chargers, leading three 75-yard touchdown drives in the game’s final nine minutes to win it in overtime, but he did also throw an interception.
Earlier this season, he was rather pedestrian against the Packers, throwing for just 166 yards and a career-low 4.5 yards per attempt. But in that game, he did not throw a pick.
So since the interception is fairly random, all we can work from is the probability of will he or won’t he throw an interception.
Turning Luck
Of the 13 interceptions thrown this season, there is no question that some of them have been because of bad throws and bad decisions. Against Washington, and in field goal range, he threw up a jump ball that was one of the ugliest picks he’s thrown at any level.
Washington forces Patrick Mahomes’ EIGHTH interception of the season 😲 pic.twitter.com/W3oyECUhxH
— Def Pen Sports (@DefPenSports) October 17, 2021
But nine of those 13 interceptions were either tipped at the line of scrimmage or first went off one of his receiver’s hands.
The tipped balls, Mahomes has to take some responsibility for. But a full 75 percent of his interceptions this season were graded as catchable passes for his receivers, and they still turned into interceptions.
In terms of not having passes picked off, Mahomes had been luckier than most quarterbacks the previous three seasons. But now, he has become the unluckiest quarterback in football.
The Steelers Pass Defense
The key for any great pass defense is to get pressure on the quarterback, and the Steelers have the good fortune of having the NFL’s sack leader in T.J. Watt.
With Watt applying the heat and forcing QBs to throw the ball before they are ready, the Steelers secondary has picked off eight different quarterbacks and the last four they’ve faced.
That current interception streak includes Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Tannehill.
The Prop
All things being equal, and the Chiefs likely to get their eighth straight win, the probability is that Patrick Mahomes will throw an interception on Sunday.
He has thrown an INT in the majority of games he has played, and the Steelers defense has an interception in the majority of games it has played.
Take the OVER.
