Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings are out on the west coast this week to take on the San Francisco 49ers in a late afternoon game in Week 12. The Vikings are coming off of a huge divisional win vs. the Packers and they will be looking to capture their third straight win to get over .500 on the season. Cousins is the focus of this NFL Player Props series, and we’ll take a look at whether or not he’ll throw an interception.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep as of Friday, Nov. 26 at 1:00 ET.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
The Prop: Kirk Cousins Interceptions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Odds: Over 0.5 (-132)/Under 0.5 (+102)
Cousins has only gone over on this prop twice all season. Both instances came in back-to-back weeks against completely different defensive schemes. I think Cousins has shown a lot of maturity this season, which shows when looking at his statistics overall, especially his turnover numbers.
Nick Bosa and the 49ers pass rush make up the biggest concern. However, I think that this pass rush may be more worrisome in the fumble/sack game than the interception game. The 49ers secondary is nothing to write home about, although they have had big games this season. I have to consider the 49ers as something like the 12th worst matchup.
Nick Bosa took NO time to come all the way back
2019: wins Defensive Rookie of the Year
2020: tears ACL
2021: sets new career-high with 10 sacks pic.twitter.com/fNgCmlaHXC— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 21, 2021
Furthermore, San Francisco allows the 13th-most rushing yards per game. The game situation could favor a healthy dose of Dalvin Cook, limiting Cousins’ passing opportunities.
When it comes to how much matchup impacts Cousins, I think this is where we get to the better side of this bet. Cousins has taken his fair share of sacks this season as a non-mobile QB, but he really hasn’t been impacted by the pressure in the throw game.
Oftentimes, we see QBs sacks correlate with turnovers. That isn’t the case with Cousins and I think that leaves us with a clear answer.
Conclusion: I think you have to take the under 0.5 at plus money when we know that the matchup is seemingly irrelevant.
