Kyle Garlett

NFL Player Props: Justin Herbert Over/Under 282.5 Passing Yards In Week 12?

Los Angeles quarterback #10 Justin Herbert looks for a receiver in a 2021 home game.
Image Credit: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

In Denver, on Sunday, there is a big AFC West battle taking place, as the Chargers look to move past the idle Chiefs and back into first place, while the Broncos look to keep pace in the crowded wild-card field. All eyes will be on second-year quarterback Justin Herbert, coming off his history-making performance in L.A.’s last-second win last week against Pittsburgh. And the big question for prop betters this weekend is, can he hit the OVER again. He’s the focus of this article’s NFL Player Props analysis.

All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 9:00 AM Eastern on Nov. 26.

Herbert’s Season To Date

The reigning Rookie-of-the-Year is coming off a historical performance against the Steelers. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 350 passing yards while also rushing for 90 yards. He finished with 382 and 90 and looked every bit the superstar he is.

In recent weeks the Chargers have been a little inconsistent in their play. They started off 4-1, and over those five games, Herbert averaged 315 yards passing per game. That stretch included huge games of 337, 338, and 398.

During the most recent five games, L.A. has lost three, and Herbert had three legitimately bad games. He finished with just 195 yards in a blowout loss in Baltimore, 223 yards against New England, and 195 against the Vikings. He also threw interceptions in each of the three losses.

Related: New to NFL player props? Check out our comprehensive NFL Props guide. 

Herbert Vs. The Broncos

This is the first of two games between the Chargers and Broncos this season, with the second matchup coming up on January 2. Last year, in 2020, as a rookie, Herbert faced the Broncos twice, and they proved to be one of his tougher opponents.

In the first meeting at Denver, Herbert threw for 278 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions and ultimately lost in a shootout, 31-30. In L.A. in Week 16, they played again, and Herbert threw for 253 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and got the win 19-16.

For the season in 2020, Herbert averaged 289 passing yards. Against the Broncos, that dipped to 265 yards. That’s a reduction of 8% when facing the Denver defense.

In 2021 Herbert is averaging 293 passing yards per game. In order to hit the OVER on Sunday, he can only have a regression of 3%.

Broncos Defense

One of the big strengths coming into 2021 for Denver was their secondary. Safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are two of the best in the league. They added cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller in free agency and then used their first-round draft pick on corner Patrick Surtain II.

At times the secondary has struggled, but big picture, the overhaul has paid off. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, and that includes missing Darby for four of the first five games – a stretch that saw big performances by Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger.

At full-strength, only Derek Carr had a gove over 270 yards, and that was back in Week 6. And this week, the Broncos secondary has everyone available.