When considering betting on a wide receiver, I sometimes find that receptions offer us a safer route.
The logic there is that if what draws you to a pass-catcher is volume, then perhaps you should just bet on his catches instead of his total yards.
I always found it frustrating when I bet a receiver’s yardage total, and he saw plenty of catches but failed to rack up the necessary yards after the catch.
For that reason, I’ve got Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins circled this weekend.
When you speak of volume, few have as much as Waddle in recent weeks. Let’s dig into why betting on Waddle’s receptions is a wager worth making.
The Prop: Jaylen Waddle over receptions (currently projected at 6.5 on BetPrep)
Waddle’s Stacking Big Games
Jaylen Waddle returned to the Miami lineup in Week 16 after a few weeks off and picked up right where he left off.
Waddle finished the game with ten catches on 12 targets for 92 yards and a score.
Waddle caught nine balls for 90 and 137 yards in his two previous games, respectively.
He’s seen double-digit targets in three straight weeks and six of his last nine games. The volume is there to support Waddle as an elite betting option.
Tua Tagovailoa clearly trusts the rookie, and his recent production suggests we can too.
For a Dolphins offense trying to overcome OL limitations, Jaylen Waddle has been the No.1 WR they envisioned him being from Day 1. And he should be a contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year: pic.twitter.com/pHlXNPyeAp
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 28, 2021
His Opponent Offers Opportunity For Receivers
In Week 17, the Dolphins and Waddle will face the Tennessee Titans, a game with massive playoff implications.
As crazy as it is after a 1-7 start, Miami controls their destiny. If they win their final two games, they’re in the playoffs.
Expect plenty of passes to Waddle given the stakes, and this defense is as good as it gets for WR production.
Tennessee allows the most receptions per game and the most yards per game to wide receivers. The defense has struggled to slow down pass-catchers all season, and Tua knows what’s been working best for this offense: targeting Waddle.
Daily I love Jaylen Waddle tweet pic.twitter.com/fMJLKTnTFL
— Bammy Adebutler’s burner (@BammyBurner) December 28, 2021
BetPrep Views This Prop Positively
The BetPrep team brings us home what makes this Waddle bet one of my favorites of the weekend.
While his reception line is not yet posted, BetPrep projects it to open at 6.5, which feels about right.
When considering that number, there are a handful of positive trends from his rookie season that suggests an over is coming:
Recorded 7+ receptions in seven of his last nine (77.78%) games when he had at least five targets the previous game. (avg. 7.7 per gm)
Recorded 7+ receptions in seven of his last nine (77.78%) games when he is averaging at least 6.5 targets per game. (avg. 7.7 per gm)
Recorded 7+ receptions in six of his last nine (75%) games when he is averaging at least 50 receiving yards per game. (avg. 7.4 per gm)
I’m looking forward to betting on Waddle in Week 17, and I hope you’ll consider joining me on the ride.