The Week 11 Thursday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will be the second meeting between the two teams since Atlanta blew its infamous 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI. But instead of focusing on the semi-rematch, let’s take a look at which individual NFL Player Props make for the best bets.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 7:00 AM Eastern on November 17, 2021.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones
The Prop: Mac Jones Passing Yards (vs Atlanta Falcons)
The Odds: Over 273.5 yards (-115) / Under 273.5 yards (-115)
No shame in giving up 296 passing yards to Dak Prescott, as the Falcons did on Sunday. But they’ve also allowed 291 yards to Tua Tagovailoa, 290 yards to Taylor Heinicke, and 266 yards to Daniel Jones.
This Jones, Mac Jones, has easily been the best rookie quarterback this season, and has thrown for at least 270 yards in four games this season. Strange things happen on Thursday Night Football and the short week that precedes it, like Atlanta making a game of this.
In today's @Patriots victory @MacJones_10 passed for 3 touchdowns with a 142.1 passer rating.
It marks the 5th-highest rating by a rookie in a single game in the Super Bowl era, minimum 20 attempts. pic.twitter.com/LEoCGXP0Fg
— NFL345 (@NFL345) November 14, 2021
There won’t be a New England rout like last week against Cleveland, which reduced the amount that Jones threw. This game will be far more competitive, putting Jones over 275 passing yards, and making the over the safer bet.
New England Patriots: Damien Harris
The Prop: Damien Harris Rushing Yards (vs Atlanta Falcons)
The Odds: Over 52.5 yards (-118) / Under 52.5 yards (-114)
Damien Harris has returned to practice after missing last week with a concussion. Everyone else on the Pats is on a short week and banged up, while he goes into Thursday’s game with a week and a half of rest.
He’s already been a favorite of Bill Belichick’s, rushing for at least 80 yards in three of his last four games, and getting an average of 17.5 carries a game. His related freshness when compared to the rest of the New England backfield should see him resume his role as the Pats’ number one option.
It also won’t hurt Harris’ rushing totals that the Falcons defense ranks just 21st in the NFL against the run. Often Belichick can be frustrating when trying to figure out where most of the carries will go. That shouldn’t be the case on Thursday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts
The Prop: Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
The Odds: Over 62.5 yards (-112) / Under 62.5 yards (-118)
With fewer targets going to Cordarrelle Patterson because of his bum ankle, the Kyle Pitts show gets back on track.
In each of his last three games, he has 13, 62, and 60 yards. But that dip in production came after he went for 163 yards against the Dolphins and 113 yards against the Jets. He is playing a better AFC East team this time around, but Pitts gets back on track and will top 75 yards receiving.
Kyle Pitts broke the franchise record for a tight end with 163 yards 🦄 pic.twitter.com/VU33KCIWML
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 25, 2021
The New England defense hasn’t played against a tight end of Pitts’ size and athleticism this season. They will find him hard to handle. For Pitts on the Thursday Night Football stage, take the over.
