Listen, betting overs on NFL player props is fun…I get it. When you have NFL Red Zone on, you want to see Scott Hanson cut to the game you’ve bet on and have your player break off a big play.
However, unders often offer more value as the lines are inflated by people like us wanting to root for something to happen.
If you’re looking for an under to sweat for all four quarters, my favorite of the week is Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson to go under his rush yards prop in Week 9, currently listed at 39.5 yards.
Here are three reasons why.
Matchup Against The Saints
For the same reason I like to bet overs against weak defenses, one must also respect strong defenses.
You won’t find a better run defense than the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans ranks first in yards per rush attempt (3.5) and second in rushing yards per game (79.4).
A running back hasn’t hit their over against the Saints since Antonio Gibson back in Week 4, and on the year, running backs have gone under their rushing yards prop 80% of the time.
Atlanta is seriously going to struggle to move the ball against New Orleans, and with Calvin Ridley now out for the year, there are only so many weapons for the Saints to keep tabs on.
Patterson will be on their radar in Week 9.
Patterson’s Usage
There’s no denying Patterson has been one of fantasy football’s biggest surprises this season, heavily involved in both the passing and running game.
For this prop, we’re focusing on his rushing yards, a responsibility he splits with Mike Davis. Any shared backfield offers value for betting unders, considering they siphon off each other’s work.
More often than not, Davis is on the field more than Patterson and getting more carries. The Falcons may opt to move Patterson to more of a wide receiver role with Ridley out, which would be even better for this under.
On the season, Patterson has gone over his current rushing yards line just three times.
BetPrep’s Negative Trends
As always, I wouldn’t sign off on a prop play without checking out BetPrep, and Patterson’s page offers the negative trends that confirm this bet.
- Ran for 40+ yards in 2 of his last 12 (16.67%) games when he had at least 5 carries last game.
- Ran for 40+ yards in 5 of his last 38 (13.16%) games when he averaged at least 3.5 rush yards per attempt last game.
- Ran for 40+ yards in 3 of his last 19 (15.79%) games when he is averaging at least 0.2 rush TDs per game on the season.
- Ran for 40+ yards in 2 of his last 35 (5.71%) games when he is averaging at least 3.9 rush yards per attempt on the season.
Those are some seriously negative trends, and combine them with his role in this offense and the tough run defense on the other end, and I like fading Patterson in Week 9.
Best of luck with all your player props! For more on NFL betting, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.