NFL Player Props: Austin Ekeler Over/Under 57.5 Rushing Yards In Week 14?

Los Angeles Chargers running back #30 Austin Ekeler looks upfield for running room in a 2021 home game.
Image Credit: Harry How/Getty Images

Austin Ekeler is one of the more dynamic running backs in the league, balancing his duties on the ground (663 rushing yards) with responsibilities in the passing game (518 yards, tied for the league lead among running backs).

In Week 14, Ekeler will lead the Los Angeles Chargers (7-5) against the New York Giants (4-8) at Sofi Stadium. The kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET.

Will he be able to reach his rushing prop total for Week 14 against New York for Los Angeles? Here’s the breakdown.

All odds courtesy of BetPrep.

Los Angeles Chargers: Austin Ekeler

The Prop: Ekeler rushing yards vs. New York Giants
The Odds: Austin Ekeler over 57.5 yards rushing -111 / Under 57.5 yards rushing -119

Ekeler has reached the over 57.5 yards rushing total in two of his last five games. So far this season, he has only reached the over in five of 12 games. That trend gets worse when expanding long-term, as Ekeler has only hit 58+ yards in nine of 32 home games in his career.

The Chargers’ offense is particularly pass-first given their reliance on quarterback Justin Herbert. But with wide receiver Keenan Allen in COVID-19 protocol, L.A. may need to look to the ground game to breakthrough here. Ekeler has only exceeded 15 carries twice this season, but against a lackluster New York Giants team, there’s reason to expect an increase in volume in Week 14.

Ekeler’s only matchup against the Giants in his career came back in 2017, his rookie season, where he gained 0 yards on four carries. Because of how his role in the Chargers offense has completely changed since then, past performance shouldn’t be an indicator of future results.

How Do the Giants Match Up?

New York has struggled against running backs this season, giving up an average of 122.8 yards per game, the eighth-most in the league. The Giants have also allowed 90+ rushing yards in three of their last six contests.

Quarterback Daniel Jones is also expected to miss Sunday’s game, which will grind New York’s already mediocre offense to a halt. Because the Giants will have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard, expect L.A. to run early and often.

With a 1-5 road record this season, I just don’t see how the Giants keep it close. I’m running with Ekeler on the over.