It might seem strange that a quarterback who appeared in only five games last season would be a popular choice in the 2021-22 NFL passing leader odds market. Yet that’s the case with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
While Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite to win the NFL passing yardage title, bettors have thrown their money on Prescott, who suffered a gruesome leg injury in Week 5 last season and reportedly dealt with a shoulder issue in training camp.
With Week 1 around the corner, Props.com examines the NFL prop market for passing yards.
NFL Passing Leader Odds
| Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | +325 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | +550 |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +900 |
| Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +900 |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +1200 |
| Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | +1400 |
| Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | +1400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | +1600 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 |
| Jameis Winston | New Orleans Saints | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings | +3500 |
| Russell Wilson | Seattle Seahawks | +3500 |
| Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | +4000 |
Odds via BetMGM Nevada as of September 1, 2021.
Bettors Love Dak Prescott
Midway through training camp, Mahomes was listed as the +325 favorite at BetMGM Nevada to claim his first NFL passing title. But it’s Prescott at +550 who is drawing the most action.
“We haven’t taken a ton of action on this prop, but the player with the most tickets is Prescott,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
One possible reason bettors have found Prescott attractive: at the time of his leg injury last season, he was averaging a whopping 371 passing yards per game. Had he maintained that pace over a full 16-game season, Prescott would’ve easily established a career high with 5,939 passing yards — and he would’ve easily finished ahead of Houston Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson, who won the 2020 passing title with 4,823 yards.
Best Of The Rest
After Prescott, a pair of SoCal gunslingers are garnering interest from BetMGM Nevada bettors on the Most Passing Yards prop: Second-year Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (+1200) has taken the second most bets, followed by new Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+1400).
Herbert is actually the fifth choice at BetMGM Nevada, following Mahomes, Prescott, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+900) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (also +900). Falling behind Herbert on BetMGM’s passing leaders odds board are Stafford and the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan (tied for sixth at +1,400), followed by reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers (+1,600).
Jameis Winston: Popular Long Shot
The most popular long shot to lead the NFL in passing yards this season? That would be Jameis Winton, who won a battle with Taysom Hill to replace the legendary Drew Brees as the New Orleans Saints’ starting quarterback. Winston, two years removed from passing for an NFL-best 5,109 yards for the Buccaneers in 2019, was listed at +6,600 prior to winning the starting job and took a fair amount of action.
With Winston now the starter, he’s shortened all the way to +2,500 at BetMGM Nevada.
Said Shelton: “Winston, by far, is our biggest liability.”