Months ago, when NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds first went up, Trevor Lawrence was the rightful favorite. He had a stellar career at Clemson and was drafted No. 1 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. There was no chance he wouldn’t be the starter this season.
That’s part of the calculus with rookie odds markets: Will that player actually, you know, play? But from there, one has to play well, and Lawrence has not, so he’s a distant memory.
TwinSpires Sportsbook trading analyst Zachary Lucas provides an update on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, with two players head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Bengals | -112 |
| Mac Jones | Patriots | +140 |
| Najee Harris | Steelers | +1,000 |
| Justin Fields | Bears | +3,000 |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | +3,300 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | +4,000 |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | +5,000 |
| Trey Lance | 49ers | +5,500 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 49ers | +5,500 |
| Rondale Moore | Cardinals | +5,500 |
Chase Leads Two-Man Race
Lawrence is still the sixth choice in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, but he’s at +4,000. A 40/1 long shot is not winning this award. Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, meanwhile, was the eighth choice prior to Week 1 at +1,800. Now he’s the modest -112 favorite.
In fact, Chase has been the favorite throughout November. But he’s being closely tracked by New England Patriots QB Mac Jones, who has his team on a roll and in the thick of the playoff chase. Jones is the +140 second choice.
“He’s been bet really well. He was available at +1,000 before being name starter,” Lucas said, alluding to Jones’ preseason odds. “We dropped him to +550 when he was named starter. Jones was slightly favored in early October, around +450, but then Chase took over.”
Chase has 45 receptions for 835 yards and seven touchdowns. He really broke out in the Bengals’ 41-17 rout at Baltimore in Week 7, with eight catches for 201 yards, including an 82-yard touchdown.
Meanwhile, Jones’ stats through 10 games appear modest for QBs: 2,333 passing yards, with 13 TD passes against seven interceptions. But he’s been hot of late, with six TDs and just one INT during the Patriots’ ongoing four-game winning streak.
In the preseason, Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields was the +700 second choice behind Lawrence until Jones was named the Pats’ starter just ahead of Week 1. Fields is now a distant +3,000, fourth on the board but with no hopes of winning. Slotting between Jones and Fields as the third choice is Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris at +1,000 — not far from where he opened the season (+875).
Tickets And Money
Jones has taken the most tickets and the most money at TwinSpires. Lawrence remains second in ticket count and money, though both have dropped off significantly throughout the season. Harris is third in tickets, while Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is third in money.
“We saw a lot of Kyle Pitts love in the preseason and early on in the year,” Lucas said. “The Falcons’ struggles haven’t helped, and he’s gone from +1,050 to +3,300.”
Barring something crazy, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year will remain a two-horse race the rest of the way — and Lucas and his TwinSpires colleagues are rooting hard for one of those horses to hit the wire first and take home the award.
“We’re hoping Chase can hold on here, as most of the money has come in on Jones — 38 percent of tickets and 34 percent of the total handle,” Lucas said. “Chase is a great decision for us, while Jones would be a sizable loser.”
