With preseason play in the rearview mirror, action is picking up on NFL MVP betting odds. Not surprisingly, quarterbacks lead the way on the NFL MVP odds board, paced by Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes.
While Mahomes is getting his share of attention, several players are drawing interest and creating liability in the NFL MVP betting market. Props.com delves into the current status of odds to win NFL MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Odds 2021-22
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | +500 |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers | +1100 |
| QB | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +1400 |
| QB | Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1400 |
| QB | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | +1600 |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | +2000 |
| QB | Russell Wilson | Seattle Seahawks | +2000 |
| QB | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +2200 |
| QB | Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | +2500 |
| QB | Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | +3500 |
| QB | Baker Mayfield | Cleveland Browns | +3500 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | Tennessee Titans | +5000 |
| QB | Deshaun Watson | Houston Texans | +5000 |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings | +5000 |
| QB | Jameis Winston | New Orleans Saints | +5000 |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | +5000 |
| QB | Matt Ryan | Atlanta Falcons | +5000 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | Carolina Panthers | +6600 |
| RB | Dalvin Cook | Minnesota Vikings | +8000 |
*Odds via BetMGM as of September 2, 2021
Bettors Support Baker Mayfield
As of Aug. 30, BetMGM Nevada has Patrick Mahomes the +500 favorite to win the NFL MVP, a price the Chiefs QB hit a couple of times since opening +600 on April 19. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold for the Green Bay Packers, the reigning MVP is the +1,100 second choice on the NFL MVP odds board, though he’s slid a bit the past couple of weeks, too, from +800.
But those two aren’t the real trouble spot behind the counter.
“We lose really big to Baker Mayfield,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, alluding to the star QB for the Cleveland Browns. “He’s got a ton of tickets, and we’re a mid-six-figure loser on him.”
That said, Mayfield can still be had at +3,500, after opening +4,000 and sitting at +3,300 earlier in August. While Mayfield doesn’t lead the way in either ticket count or money, he’s priced significantly longer than other popular MVP candidates, hence the big liability.
Josh Allen Leads Ticket Count
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen leads the ticket count at BetMGM Nevada, followed by Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. However, Mahomes has taken the most money so far, followed by Allen and Mayfield. Allen’s odds stuck at +1,200 for months before recently slipping to +1,400, making him the co-third choice with Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. Prescott and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson are +1,800 – a slip back for Jackson, who was +1,400 in early August.
“Mahomes is a big one for us, and we also lose big to Justin Herbert,” Shelton said, noting the Los Angeles Chargers QB is the book’s second-largest liability, moving from +3,000 to +2,000, then to +2,200. “But Herbert isn’t even half of what we lose to Mayfield.”
Shelton said Mahomes, Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson and new Los Angeles Rams QB Matt Stafford are “all about the same loss” for BetMGM Nevada. Wilson bounced from +2,000 to +1,600 and back to +2,000, and Stafford is also +2,000.
Ben Roethlisberger: MVP Longshot?
And in the long-shot department, Ben Roethlisberger is creating noteworthy liability at +10,000 odds (100/1).
Among those near the top of the odds board, Shelton said good outcomes for his side of the counter include Rodgers, Jackson and Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (+2,500).
“Rodgers is great for us. We’re knocking on the door of a six-figure win if he repeats,” Shelton said.