Based on all the social media and TV talking-head chatter, one might think NFL Draft betting is off the charts. The first round opens at 8 p.m. ET Thursday, and odds on NFL Draft prop bets have seen all sorts of movement the past few days.
The favorite to be picked No. 1 overall shifted significantly. A week ago, Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson was favored, followed by fellow defensive end Travon Walker of Georgia. Now, it’s flipped, with Walker a growing favorite to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
With that, there’s a domino effect impacting many other NFL Draft props, which has everybody talking. But is the hype matching the handle on NFL Draft betting?
Low Limits Lead To Small Handle
As has been the case since 2017, when Nevada first got clearance to allow betting on the NFL Draft, limits are low on these prop bets. One reason for that, not only in Nevada but now across dozens of legal U.S. jurisdictions: The Draft is very much a sharp betting market, with professional bettors having more of an upper hand than in traditional wagering.
For example, The SuperBook is nationally renowned for its Super Bowl prop menu, which has limits of $2,000 per bet. For NFL Draft betting, that limit is cut in half to $1,000.
As Caesars Sports assistant director of trading Adam Pullen told Props.com last week: “There’s just not enough public action on the Draft to balance out the sharp action. That’s why the limits are low.”
On Wednesday morning, about 36 hours before the first round opens, BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott echoed that sentiment.
“I have deliberately kept low limits, as I want nothing to do with it,” Scott said.
Of course, NFL Draft handle — the total amount bet on the event — could be much greater if bookmakers such as Pullen and Scott raised their limits. But oddsmakers recognize it’s a tricky and ever-fluid market that requires a different level of risk management.
Popularity Slowly Growing
All the above is not to say there isn’t significant interest in NFL Draft betting. After all, we’re talking about the NFL. As much as Abe Froman is the sausage king of Chicago, the NFL is the betting king of the United States.
“Everybody likes the NFL. So anytime they can bet on the NFL, they will,” said Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook. “And I’d include the Draft with that. When we first opened Draft props Monday, there was an influx [of action]. The whole bet ticker was ‘Draft, Draft, Draft, Draft.’
“We got decent action on who will be drafted first, and on a couple of the [head-to-head] matchups. But those are nothing compared with the Over/Unders.”
That would be the Over/Under on Draft position for a specific player. The SuperBook has 30 or so such props. For example, the aforementioned Hutchinson’s Over/Under is 1.5 at The SuperBook, with the Over — meaning he’s picked later than 1.5 (likely No. 2 at this point) — a -400 favorite. Correspondingly, Under 1.5 — meaning Hutchinson goes No. 1 overall — is +330.
Sharps are having their say on multiple props so far, but there is rising public interest.
“It’s a good mix. I’d say it’s more sharp bettors, but there’s a lot of public action on who’ll be drafted No. 1 and on a bunch of matchups,” Degnon said, noting the most popular matchup pits Liberty quarterback Malik Willis against Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett, as far as who goes off the board first. “There are a lot of smaller bets there. Maybe someone’s a Saints fan, betting on their team to take Willis.”
Nevada Lags Behind
One issue hampering handle in Nevada is the state regulation that cuts off NFL Draft betting 24 hours before the first round. So at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday (5 p.m. PT in Nevada), all NFL Draft props come off the board. The rule runs counter to how sports betting works in every other realm, with the bulk of the money landing in the hours and even minutes before an event starts. In other states/jurisdictions, that’s how it works for the NFL Draft, as well.
But not so in the state that’s known as the Grandfather of Sports Betting — which probably will surprise many of the expected hundreds of thousands flocking to Las Vegas, which hosts this year’s NFL Draft on the famed Las Vegas Strip.
“You’d see a lot of Draft-day action on this stuff, and not just sharp money,” Degnon said. “A lot of people who probably don’t know that [rule] are coming into town.”
BetMGM’s Scott agreed the Nevada regulation dampens handle to a degree. But again, Scott prefers not to push Draft betting too hard anyway, in Nevada or nationwide, with BetMGM now in 24 U.S. states/jurisdictions. The Draft is drawing modest overall handle this year, and that’s fine with Scott.
“It’s tracking toward a low-quality Monday Night Football game,” Scott said.
