These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 4
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. Still, there are 8 picks, including notable spreads and totals you should be paying attention to.
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Saints +2.5 | at Vikings | 80% |
| Over 43.5 | Saints-Vikings | 100% |
| Titans +3.5 | at Colts | 75% |
| Over 42.5 | Titans-Colts | 75% |
| Dallas -3 | vs. Commanders | 75% |
| Over 41.5 | Commanders-Cowboys | 75% |
| Broncos +2.5 | at Raiders | 88% |
| Under 46.5 | Broncos-Raiders | 75% |
Insights For Week 4
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 3. It’s worth noting that the model had a 2-0 record at 100% line value last week. There is one bet with that designation for Week 3:
- Over 43.5 Saints-Vikings
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 5-7 in Week 3. Above 80% is 12-13 on the season. In addition to the picks above, these bets made the cut for Week 4:
- Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
Overall, the model went 16-4 last week, putting the overall record to 29-12 (70.73%) on the season.
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 29-12
Spread: 16-7
Totals: 13-5