Pumpkin pie. Yams. The uncle who over-imbibes and passes out in your favorite recliner before the turkey gets carved.
Some Thanksgiving traditions are as unfortunate as they are unexplainable. And the NFL continuing to force-feed us the god-awful Detroit Lions every Turkey Day is another such tradition.
This week, the league’s schedule-makers are serving up an extra special Thanksgiving treat, matching the Lions against the Chicago Bears. Combined records of these NFC North rivals: 3-16-1. And one of those victories was the Bears beating the Lions in Week 4.
Like grandma’s Jell-O mold, this one probably won’t go down easy. But the fact it’s on the NFL Week 12 odds board makes it a tad more digestible.
We’ll try to add a little more flavor by providing some relevant NFL betting trends on this Bears-Lions stinker, as well as the other two Thanksgiving Day contests. Also included are the usual point-spread and Over/Under tidbits you’ve come to expect in our weekly NFL Betting Trends Report.
Bon appétit!
All statistics are based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 10-5 | 99-65-1 |
| Favorites ATS | 8-7 | 71-93-1 |
| Over/Under | 5-10 | 71-92-2 |
Lions, Bears, Cowboys … Oh My!
In the spirit of the season, let’s begin by focusing on the positives in this Chicago-Detroit matchup. There are positives? Indeed!
While the Bears (-3.5) are just 4-6 ATS overall (including 1-4 ATS in their last five), they are 2-for-2 as a favorite (including the 24-14 victory over the Lions as a 3-point chalk in Week 4).
Meanwhile, Detroit has cashed in consecutive games for the first time this season — and it nearly won both outright (16-16 tie at Pittsburgh, 13-10 loss at Cleveland).
More positives for Lions fans: Only six teams in the NFL have a better point-spread record than Detroit’s 6-4 ATS mark.
Looking at the total, both teams are 7-3 to the Under this season, with their first meeting falling short of the 41.5-point total (which is also the consensus number this week). Detroit has stayed low in seven of its last eight overall, while Chicago has done the same in three of its last four road games.
Once Lions-Bears (mercifully!) ends, the scene shifts to Dallas for a clash between the Cowboys (-7.5/-8) and Raiders. Despite tumbling at Kansas City in Week 10, Dallas is still 8-2 ATS, which ranks second behind Green Bay. Within that sterling point-spread mark, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS at home.
Las Vegas lands in Texas in an 0-3 SU and ATS funk, having dropped those games by margins of 7, 27 and 29 points.
As for trends related to the total — which is ranging between 50.5 and 51 — Dallas has stayed low in four straight games, while the Raiders are 3-1 Under on the road.
Nightcap In The Big Easy
The most competitive (and compelling) matchup during the Thanksgiving tripleheader figures to be the last one. The Bills (-5.5) head to New Orleans having alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games, going just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five. The bright spot for Buffalo backers: While the Bills went loss/push/loss in three straight contests a few weeks back, they haven’t failed to cash in consecutive games all season.
The same could be said for the Saints. In fact, New Orleans — which is coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog — is the only team that has alternated spread covers in every game this season. If that NFL betting trend continues Thursday night, so will another one: New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS as an underdog (the lone setback coming Sunday in Philly).
The Saints also have gone over the total in six of their last seven games (including the last four in a row overall and three in a row at home). Buffalo also has topped the total in three of its last four on the highway.
However, before rushing to unload on Over 45.5 in this contest — or, for that matter, the Over in Raiders-Cowboys — take note of this impressive (albeit quirky) totals trend: For the season, the Under is 36-17-1 in non-conference games, including 16-5 the last four weeks.
In Week 11, there were five AFC-NFC matchups. All five stayed low, with final scores of 25-0, 13-10, 30-10, 16-13, and 19-9. (Looking for more strong Under trends? Stay tuned!)
Patriots Are Padding Wallets
If you answered “Minnesota Vikings” to the question “What team will halt the Packers’ insane spread-covering streak?” step to the window and collect your winnings. Last week, the Vikes did what the Vikes always do — blew a sizable lead — but Kirk Cousins and crew managed to stop shooting themselves long enough to escape with a 34-31 victory as a 1.5-point underdog.
With that, Green Bay’s nine-game ATS winning streak ended. The Packers still sit atop the point-spread standings at 9-2 ATS, followed by the Cowboys and Cardinals (8-3 ATS).
Green Bay’s loss in Minnesota means there’s a new “Hottest ATS Team in the Land,” and it’s none other than curmudgeon Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England has covered (and won) five straight games heading into Sunday’s home tilt against the Titans. Like the Patriots, who are laying 6.5 points this week, Tennessee is 7-4 ATS but has failed to cash in its last two.
More relevant NFL betting trends heading into Week 12:
— The Jets — who are 2-8 ATS overall, 0-5 ATS on the road, and 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or less — are catching 2.5/3 points at Houston. The Texans are 3-1 ATS at home.
— The Colts, who are on a 6-2 ATS run and have covered four in a row as an underdog, are 2.5-point home pups against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS both on the road and as a single-digit chalk.
— The Panthers (2-6 ATS slump) are laying 1.5/2 points at Miami (3-0 ATS run).
— The Steelers, who are 0-5 ATS as a favorite but 4-1 ATS as a ’dog, are catching 4.5 points at the Bengals, who have failed to cash in three consecutive home games.
Big Favorites, Big Debt
After a three-week stretch during which underdogs dominated to the tune of 29-13-1 ATS, favorites held the slimmest of edges in Week 11 (8-7 ATS). Still, ’dogs are cashing at a 56.7 percent clip for the season (93-71-1 ATS), including 63.2 percent the past four weeks (36-21-1 ATS).
In particular, sizable favorites continue to torch bankrolls. Since Week 8, teams laying 6 points or more are 15-11-1 SU but 6-20-1 ATS.
This week, however, only two teams fall in that big chalk range — and both are among the best spread-covering teams in the NFL: As noted above, the Cowboys are -7.5/-8 vs. the Raiders, while the Patriots are -6.5 vs. the Titans.
Of the remaining 13 games on the Week 12 docket, 10 feature point spreads ranging from pick ’em to 3.5.
Totally Underwhelming
If you’re prone to betting Overs in the NFL, now might be the time to launch that GoFundMe campaign. Because you have to go back to Week 5 for the last time the Over turned a profit in a given week.
In Week 11, the Under cashed in 10 of 15 games, eight of which petered out at 40 points or less. The Under is now 19-10 the past two weeks and 92-71-2 for the season (a solid 56.4 percent rate).
Also, in addition to being money in AFC/NFC matchups, the Under continues to pay dividends in prime-time games (16-8 the past eight weeks) and especially in Thursday night contests (8-1 the past nine weeks).
Besides the Lions and Cowboys, teams riding lengthy Under streaks heading into Week 12 include the Seahawks (7-0-1); Packers (7-1); Jaguars (5-0 overall and 5-1 at home); Texans (6-2); and Broncos, Dolphins, and Giants (all 4-0).
On the opposite side of the fence, the Jets join New Orleans in having topped the total in six of their last seven contests. The Colts (6-2), Patriots (5-2, including 3-0 at home), and Eagles (4-1) also are on Over runs.
Finally, specific to this week’s games, the Titans (at New England) and Vikings (at San Francisco) are 4-1 Over on the road this season, while the Ravens (vs. Cleveland) are 4-1 Over at home.
ATS Standings
Best:
Packers 9-2
Cowboys 8-2
Cardinals 8-3
Titans 7-4
Colts 7-4
Patriots 7-4
Worst:
Jets 2-8
Washington 3-7
Chiefs 4-7
(Nine teams tied at 4-6)
Over/Under Standings:
Over:
Colts 7-4
Jets 6-4
Saints 6-4
Browns 6-5
Eagles 6-5
Titans 6-5
Under:
Seahawks 1-7-1
Jaguars 2-8
Broncos 2-8
Packers 3-8
Lions 3-7
Bears 3-7
