Each week, BetPrep Sharp and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg talks about expected win totals, division odds, Super Bowl favorites, and other NFL bets with host and BetPrep Editor Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight.
It’s the official futures podcast of BetPrep, a free sports betting research site that empowers bettors with the same tools both the sharps and the sportsbooks use.
Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Futures Podcast.
Note: These write-ups are shortened transcriptions from the podcast episode. Be sure to listen to the podcast for full context on these NFL bets!
Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 11.5 wins
Brad’s Take: I see a bunch of losable games on their schedule and only one game, at home against the Giants, that’s a slam-dunk win. In no other games do I think they’ll be a touchdown favorite. So the math to get to 12 wins just is not there. They’re closer to a 10-win projected team is my honest answer.
Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 7.5 wins
Brad’s Take: Doing quick math here they have to have a winning record from this point on to beat you. Is that possible? Of course. But there is not one game on their schedule that they can’t lose. They can lose to Detroit, for example. So I’m going to dare the Eagles to go 6-5 to beat me.
Chicago Bears OVER 6.5 wins
Brad’s Take: They’re 3-3. So is there a better chance this team goes 3-8 or 4-7? That’s the bet. I think 4-7 easily. I have them at 7.3 wins when I do my math with their schedule and that’s with me thinking Matt Nagy is 32nd of 32 NFL head coaches.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 10.5 wins
Brad’s Take: They’re the most injured team in the NFL now. Every week they lose more players. If healthy, I think they’re almost as good as anyone. But they’re 3-3. Are they going 8-3 the rest of the season to beat you? They are not, for me. They’re far more likely to win nine games than 11.
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 7.5 wins
Brad’s Take: Over 7.5 seems very low. I look at their schedule. They have to go 3-8 to lose this bet. No way are they doing that in the absence of horrible injuries, which apply to any team.
Las Vegas Raiders OVER 8.5 wins
Brad’s Take: I think this Raiders team is pretty good. Maxx Crosby has been just terrific on defense. The Raiders have to go 4-7 or worse from this point on for you to lose this bet … When I look at this schedule, getting to nine wins seems very easy.
Seattle Seahawks UNDER 8.5 wins
Brad’s Take: They can lose to anyone without Russell Wilson given that defense that just cannot get off the field. I see them at 3-6 at best when Russell Wilson gets back. So they have to go 6-2 with Wilson to beat you, with this defense and with us not even knowing how well Wilson is going to be able to throw the ball with his finger injury.
Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 46.5 wins
Brad’s Take: It’s so far off for me. I have them at 34 wins, I’ll be honest. This just is not a good team. They lose Kawhi Leonard … I checked all my work and this is just not a good team. I don’t think this team wins 47 games and I like them to miss the playoffs. You can get a plus-230 to miss the playoffs and that’s a really good bet, too.
Chicago Bulls OVER 42.5 wins
Brad’s Take: I bet them under 7.5 in Conference finishing position (meaning if they finish seventh or higher, Brad wins). I think DeMar DeRosen was just a huge, huge signing. They also added my favorite under-the-radar player in Alex Caruso. That guy’s a winner. They traded for Nikola Vucevic last year. I think this is right there as the most talented team in the East.
Tyler Herro Sixth Man of the Year (+1400)
Brad’s Take: 14-to-1 is just asinine. There are even more minutes for Herro this year than last year, let me make this perfectly clear. This is my biggest bet … I don’t expect to win but if I’m right I can cheaply hedge with other top contenders and guarantee myself a nice profit. I would have made him plus-350 to win. He’s in a prime position to have a great year; he also led the NBA preseason in scoring … This is a talented guy and at 14-to-1 against everyone else’s backups? I just think I can make a crazy amount of money here.