NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Props: South, West Regions

The No. 1 seeds are gone, but NCAA Tournament Elite Eight props for the South and West regions involve four top programs.

First in the South Region final, No. 5 seed Houston — which knocked off No. 1 Arizona on Thursday — is a 2-point favorite over a second-seeded Villanova squad that eliminated No. 11 Michigan. Then in the West Region, No. 2 seed Duke is a 3.5-point favorite over No. 4 Arkansas, which stunned No. 1 overall Gonzaga before the Blue Devils took down No. 3 Texas Tech.

Props.com breaks down four NCAA Tournament Elite Eight props for Saturday’s games.

Odds from FanDuel and updated as of 6 p.m. ET on March 25.

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Props: Houston Vs Villanova

Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Houston -2/128

Houston Cougars: G Jamal Shead

The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over +100/Under -128

Sometimes, bettors have to wonder whether sportsbooks are playing them for suckers.

Jamal Shead scored 21 points in Houston’s 72-60 victory over Arizona on Thursday to reach the Elite Eight. That performance came after Shead scored 18 points in a 68-53 second-round beatdown of Illinois.

So why is Shead’s prop total only 11.5 for Saturday’s game against Villanova (and with juice to the Under)? You don’t have to dig too deep to find the answer.

First, Houston loves to play slow (338^th in tempo, according to KenPom), but Villanova plays even slower (345). This Elite Eight game might very well turn into a rock fight, and the low game total of 128 reflects that. There probably won’t be a lot of points to be had by anyone.

Also, Shead’s past two games are outliers. He scored 12 points in a first-round NCAA Tournament victory over UAB, but in the eight games before that, he tallied more than 11.5 points only once. For the season, Shead has averaged 10.1 points per game.

Unless you think the past two games represent a new normal for Shead, bet on him to stay Under 11.5 points against Villanova.

Villanova Wildcats: G Caleb Daniels

The prop: 9.5 points
The odds: Over -115/Under -111

Daniels got some open 3-point looks that didn’t go down in Thursday’s 63-55 victory over Michigan. He went 0-for-5 and finished with eight points.

Daniels failed to make a 3 in only six of 35 games this season before Thursday. Three of those instances occurred in Villanova’s first three games. The other three times, Daniels made two 3-pointers in the next game each time and scored at least 10 points in two of the three.

With Houston’s swarming defense, Daniels should get some opportunities when Villanova’s other guards are forced to kick out to him on the wing.

Here’s betting Daniels will knock a couple of those down and find at least four more points at the rim or the free-throw line to go Over 9.5 points.

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Props: Arkansas Vs Duke

Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Spread/Total: Duke -3.5 (-106)/147.5

Duke Blue Devils: Team Total

The prop: 75.5 total points
The odds: Over -114/Under -110

Arkansas plays fast (28^th in tempo, per KenPom), and that could work right into Duke’s hands Saturday. The Blue Devils have the second-best offense, according to KenPom, and should thrive with more possessions.

Duke was even able to crack the No. 1-ranked defense of Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 on Thursday, pulling away with 78 points. It was the most the Red Raiders allowed in regulation all season. It was also the eighth time in the last nine games that Duke has put up at least 78 points (hitting 80 or more six times).

Arkansas has KenPom’s 11^th-best defense, but it’s no Texas Tech. Take Duke to go Over its team total of 75.5.

Duke Blue Devils: F Paolo Banchero

The prop: 1.5 made 3-pointers
The odds: Over +170/Under -220

Banchero is projected to go in the first three picks of this year’s NBA Draft, and he has met the moment in the NCAA Tournament.

The 6-foot-10 freshman has scored 17, 19 and 22 points in the Blue Devils’ three victories, and he has scored 17 or more in eight of the past nine games.

Banchero was 0-for-6 on 3-pointers at the ACC tournament at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, but his long-range shot has found the mark in the Big Dance. Banchero made three of four 3-pointers in Thursday’s win over Texas Tech, and he drained two in each of the first two games. That leaves him at 7-for-13 in the Tournament.

That 53.8 success rate won’t continue, of course (after all, he hit just 33 percent for the season). But Banchero has to be feeling confident after the past three games, and he’ll surely want to continue to put on a show as he auditions for NBA teams.

In a game that should be fast-paced, expect Banchero to put up several 3-pointers and for at least two of them to go down. Take the Over on this NCAA Tournament Elite Eight prop — which has a juicy +170 price attached to it.