We’re down to two teams on the NCAA South Region odds board. Based on seeding, one was expected to reach this point, playing for a berth in the Final Four. The other outfit is perhaps a bit unexpected, but clearly getting respect now.
In fact, No. 5 seed Houston opened as the favorite against No. 2 seed Villanova for Saturday’s South Region final in San Antonio. That’ll happen when you post an impressive win over a No. 1 seed that many thought would be the last team standing in the NCAA Tournament.
Props.com breaks down Saturday’s matchup, with insights from multiple oddsmakers on March Madness South Region odds and action. Check back for updates through tipoff of this contest.
NCAA South Region Odds and Action
| Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
| No. 5 Houston vs No. 2 Villanova | 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday | Houston -3 (-105) | 126.5 |
Odds via PointsBet USA and updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on March 26.
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 2 Villanova
UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Less than 45 minutes before tipoff, Houston has moved from -2.5 to -3 (-105) on PointsBet USA’s March Madness South Region odds board. There’s near-perfect two-way action in this one, with 54% of spread wagers on Villanova and 52% of spread cash on Houston. The total, which opened at 128.5 at PointsBet, is down two points to 126.5. Contrary to that line move, 72% of bets and 63% of cash is on the Over.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: TwinSpires pegged Houston a 2-point favorite at the outset and is now at -2.5, a few hours ahead of tipoff. The Cougars are taking 54% of spread tickets and 65% of spread money. “Sharp play on Houston -2,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. The total is down a tick, from 1275. to 127, with 57% of tickets on the Over/53% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Very early on game day, WynnBet has Houston laying 2.5 points in the NCAA West Region odds market, up a half-point from the -2 opener. The Cougars are netting 61% of spread tickets, but those bets are translating into 83% of spread dollars. The total crept down from 128.5 to 128, with the Over drawing 69% of tickets, while 70% of cash is on the Under.
Those betting splits are perhaps in response to the fact that seven of eight Sweet 16 games stayed Under the total. Of those seven contests, six failed to reach 140 combined points.
UPDATE 1 A.M. ET FRIDAY: On the heels of overall No. 1 seed Gonzaga bowing out in the West Region on Thursday night, Houston took out South No. 1 seed Arizona. The Cougars (32-5 SU, 25-12 ATS) kept the Wildcats at bay throughout, posting a 72-60 victory as a 1.5-point underdog. As Tournament fortune would have it, the contest was practically a home game for Houston, playing three hours away from campus in San Antonio. So the Cougars will have a similar crowd edge come Saturday.
Houston is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the postseason, running through the American Athletic Conference tournament, then winning and cashing its first three March Madness contests. In fact, the Cougars are a stout 12-1 SU/11-2 ATS in their last 13 games. Houston is aiming for its second straight Final Four bid after falling to eventual champion Baylor in last year’s semifinals.
Villanova (29-7 SU, 19-16-1 ATS) is also 3-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance after taking out upstart No. 11 seed Michigan 63-55 laying 4.5 points. That was a rematch of the 2018 national final, in which ‘Nova rolled 79-62 giving 10 points. Villanova is aiming to stay on track for its third national championship in seven years, having also claimed the 2016 title.
The Wildcats have won eight in a row SU (5-3 ATS) and are 13-1 SU in their last 14 outings (7-6-1 ATS).
Villanova is on a 5-1 Under run in the postseason and is 8-2 to the Under at neutral sites this season. The Wildcats’ game vs. Michigan fell well short of the 137 total. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Houston’s last eight games (3-1 last four), including the win over Arizona (total 147).
DraftKings’ NCAA South Region odds market opened perhaps surprisingly with Houston a 2.5-point chalk and a tidy total of 128.5. There was no movement on the spread early today, but the total dipped a point to 127.5. Check back later today for updates on odds and action for the South Region final.
