Before we get full-on into March Madness, there’s the little matter of which four teams will round out the NCAA Tournament field. Tuesday’s NCAA First Four odds market has two games on tap, with the winners advancing to Thursday first-round games.
Hitting the court first are co-Midwest Region No. 16 seeds Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Texas Southern. The later matchup is more attractive: Indiana vs. Wyoming, in a battle of co-No. 12 seeds in the East Region.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on opening/current lines and action in the NCAA Tournament play-in betting market. Check back later for action updates.
NCAA First Four Odds and Betting Action
East Region
No. 12 Indiana vs No. 12 Wyoming (9:10 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 8:55 P.M. ET: Fifteen minutes before tipoff, Indiana just returned to -4.5 at WynnBet. The Hoosiers opened at -4, made a prior trip to -4.5, then fell back to -4 in the past 15 minutes before quickly going back to -4.5. Indiana is taking 69% of spread tickets, but just 53% of spread dollars. The total toggled between 132.5 and 132 a couple of times and now sits at 132, with 65% of tickets/57% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET: Indiana and Wyoming have a prime-time tipoff Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, with the winner advancing to face East No. 5 seed St. Mary’s on Thursday.
The Hoosiers got this far by making a very-much-necessary run to the Big Ten tourney semifinals. Without that run, Indiana wouldn’t be on this year’s NCAA Tournament odds board. After upsetting both Michigan and Big Ten No. 1 seed Illinois on consecutive days — the latter being a 65-63 victory as a 5.5-point pup — the Hoosiers gave eventual Big Ten champ Iowa all it could handle in the semifinals.
Indiana (20-13 SU, 19-14 ATS) led the Hawkeyes 67-58 with 5:29 remaining, but then ended up on the wrong side of a 22-10 run and lost 80-77 catching 5.5 points. Dating back to the regular-season finale — a 69-67 loss at Purdue as a 10.5-point road pup — the Hoosiers are on a 4-0 ATS run. Also worth nothing: Indiana has played six consecutive tightly contested games decided by margins of 5, 3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 points. The Hoosiers split those games SU and went 5-1 ATS (1-1 ATS as a favorite).
Wyoming (25-8 SU, 17-13-2 ATS) had a strong season in the Mountain West, but slowed down over the past couple of weeks, going 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS over its last five games. The Cowboys made it to the conference tournament semis, then bowed out against No. 1 seed (and eventual champ) Boise State 68-61 getting 2.5 points.
Wyoming is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, and 9-3 ATS in its last dozen neutral-site games. The Hoosiers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite.
The Over hit in seven of Indiana’s last 10 games, but the Under is 5-2 in Wyoming’s last seven (3-1 last four).
Indiana opened as a 4-point favorite in TwinSpires’ NCAA First Four odds market, dipped to -3.5, rose to -4.5, and is now back at -4. Ticket count and money are both running 2/1 on the Hoosiers.
“The public is siding with the Hoosiers,” Lucas said.
Midwest Region
No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs No. 16 Texas Southern (6:40 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET: The winner of this play-in contest gets quite the reward: An opportunity to face Midwest Region No. 1 seed Kansas on Thursday.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won the Southland Conference tournament, claiming three victories in three days to gain a First Four spot. The Islanders (23-11 SU, 20-10 ATS) beat Southeastern Louisiana 73-65 as a 2-point underdog in the final, moving to 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games. Going back further, Corpus Christi is on a 7-1 SU/ATS roll, with the winner covering the point spread in all eight contests.
Texas Southern (18-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) pulled off a similar feat in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, winning three games over four days to take the title. In the final, the Tigers hammered Alcorn State 87-62 as a 3.5-point favorite, moving to 7-1 SU in their last eight games (4-3-1 ATS).
Texas Southern is 11-1-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site contests and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament appearances. Meanwhile, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 as a ‘dog, including 8-1 ATS this season when catching 3 points or more.
The Over is 5-2 in Texas Southern’s last seven contests and 15-6 in Corpus Christi’s last 21 games getting points. However, the Under hit in all three of the Islanders’ Southland tourney games.
TwinSpires opened Texas Southern a 3.5-point chalk on its NCAA Tournament play-in odds board. The Tigers then rose to -4 and returned to -3.5, while taking 56% of spread bets. Conversely, 57% of spread money is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
“Great two-way action. Sharp play on both sides,” Lucas said.
The total opened and is currently at 136, with 54% of tickets on the Over/61% of money on the Under.
