Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA betting props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite NBA betting props from Monday’s slate of nine games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Dec. 13.
Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors
The Prop: Raptors -3, first half
The Odds: Kings -115/Raptors -105
This matchup sets up well for Toronto, at least if you focus on the recent first-half performances of both teams.
In their last five road outings, the Kings have surrendered an average of 62.4 first-half points. Somehow, Sacramento has posted a 2-2-1 ATS first-half record during this stretch, but the two defeats were alarming: The Kings trailed Memphis 76-52 after two quarters on Nov. 28, then faced a 81-52 halftime deficit at Cleveland on Saturday
Meanwhile, the Raptors have enjoyed a halftime lead in each of their last four home games, posting advantages of +8, +10, +21, and +8 points.
For the season, Sacramento and Toronto have positive ATS records at halftime — and surprisingly, the Kings (15-12 ATS) have been a bit better than the Raptors (13-12-1 ATS). And despite those ugly performances at Memphis and Cleveland, Sacramento is 9-5 ATS at the break on the road. Toronto is 8-6 ATS at home.
Sacramento, which wraps a three-game road swing with this contest, has been off since Saturday’s game in Cleveland. Toronto concludes its seven-game homestand and is operating on three days’ rest.
Related: New to NBA betting props? Check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide.
Houston Rockets: C Christian Wood
The Prop: 30.5 points/rebounds/assists (at Atlanta)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -115
It would be an understatement to qualify this prop as “eminently reachable” for Wood.
In his last eight games, the Rockets’ versatile center is averaging 37.5 combined points/rebounds/assists, and he’s eclipsed this number seven times during that stretch. In those seven contests, Wood racked up 36, 35, 33, 37, 45, 52 and 32 combined points, rebounds, and assists; the only time he fell short of this number, he posted 30.
What’s more, Wood — who is shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc this season — is averaging 33 points/rebounds/assists in eight games against Eastern Conference foes. And that includes a 16-credit clunker against the Celtics three weeks ago.
On Monday, Wood faces a Hawks squad that ranks 19th in scoring defense (108.7 points per game), 19th in made three-pointers allowed (12.7 per game), 20th in opponents’ field-goal defense (45.5 percent), and 25th in opponents’ assists (25.0 dimes per contest).
The only downside: Wood beat this number just twice in his last five complete road games. However, he should be fresh and ready to go in this one, having enjoyed Sunday off after playing Memphis on Saturday.
Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum
The Prop: 8.5 rebounds (vs. Milwaukee)
The Odds: Over +115/Under -150
The juice on this prop would suggest the Under is a strong play here. But the stats don’t exactly back that up.
For starters, Tatum is averaging 9.5 rebounds in his last eight games. During this span, the Celtics’ forward has alternated collecting double-digit boards. The breakdown: 12, 7, 16, 6, 10, 8, 10, and 7 rebounds. So if you believe in patterns, Tatum is due for 10-plus rebounds against Milwaukee on Monday.
In his last seven home games, Tatum has collected nine or more rebounds four times (16, 11, 11 and 11), and he’s landed right on eight twice.
Speaking of ’11’ (cue the iconic clip from This Is Spinal Tap), Tatum rolled for 27 points and 11 rebounds in 41 minutes played against the Bucks on Nov. 12.
Tatum comes into this one fully rested, as the Celtics have been idle since concluding a five-game/seven-night West Coast swing on Friday in Phoenix.
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
The Prop: 213.5 combined points (alternate total)
The Odds: Over -145/Under +115
This alternate tally is 3 points lower than the actual total of 216.5), and there’s a solid argument to made for playing either side.
Let’s start with the visitors: In their last 11 road games, the Hornets and their opponents have soared Over this number nine times, putting up point tallies of 250, 226, 249, 226, 220, 289, 252, 252 and 257. The only two exceptions during this 11-game stretch were a pair of Charlotte victories in Washington (109-103) and Orlando (106-99).
On the flip side, the Mavericks have fallen woefully short of 214 points in their last six games (3 home/3 away). Dallas’ highest scoring contest during this span: a 102-99 home loss (201 combined points) to Brooklyn on Tuesday.
Additionally, in their past seven games at American Airlines Center dating to Nov. 6, the Mavs and their opponents went above 213 points just once (234 vs. Washington on Nov. 20). The combined scores of the other six games: 211, 200, 212, 234, 210, 198, 187 and 201.
Also of significance: The Mavs, who traveled to Oklahoma City on Sunday and hammered the Thunder 103-84, are in a back-to-back spot. In Dallas’ four previous back-to-back situations, it combined for 200 or fewer points three times on the second night.
The Hornets, who launch a six-game road swing against Western Conference foes Monday, have been idle since Friday.
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 8.5 assists (vs. Washington)
The Odds: Over +105/Under -135
Nearly two weeks ago, Props.com essentially guaranteed Jokic would hurdle a points/rebounds/assists total … only to see the reigning MVP’s production plunge after halftime, as Denver scored just 40 second-half points in a loss to lowly Orlando.
As such, what appeared to be an easy Over winner after 24 minutes turned into a dead Under, as Jokic finished with 18 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 assists, falling well short of the 45.5 prop number.
Well, we’re back on the Jokic speculation train (just without any implied guarantees this time).
Let’s start with the case for the Under: Jokic, who hasn’t played at Denver’s Pepsi Center since Nov. 18, has collected nine or more assists in just three of the eight home games he’s played. And in his last six matchups with Washington, Jokic cleared this number only twice. The breakdown: 9, 7, 5, 4, 4, and 11.
Looking at his most recent stretch of games, though, Jokic has been playing an MVP-like level, averaging a triple-double in his last four outings (28.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 11.0 assists). His assist totals over this stretch: 15, 11, 10, and 8.
Also, the last 10 times The Joker has played with at least one day of rest, he’s averaged 8.8 assists per game.
