Welcome back to the NBA Betting Dime. If you’re new here, welcome! This is a safe space that combines some of the things that make basketball so special. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives into NBA betting, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week’s edition will touch on the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, the impact of the Robert Williams injury, and the latest twist in the NBA betting MVP market.
Let’s dive right in.
1. The Race Is On!
The NBA is officially in the home stretch, with most teams having just seven or eight games remaining on their schedule. However, the battle for the top spot in the East is just heating up. Four teams are currently separated by just two games in the standings, with the Heat owning a slim lead over the Bucks, Celtics, and 76ers heading into Thursday’s action.
Every game for these teams has massive implications down the stretch. The Celtics fell from first place to fourth in just a few days, and home court could be massive in what should be an extremely entertaining Eastern Conference playoffs.
Despite the Heat owning the top spot currently, they seem like longshots to hold on to it when all is said and done. They just completed a week from hell that included a showdown between Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra and a 17-point fourth-quarter collapse vs. the lowly Knicks. They have bounced back with wins in their past two games, but they’re still just 2-4 over their past six. Their remaining schedule lacks a true unwinnable game, but four of their last five games are against teams with winning records.
Still, the Heat’s remaining schedule is a cakewalk compared to the Celtics’ and Bucks’. The Celtics’ five remaining opponents own a combined winning percentage of .533, giving them the seventh-hardest remaining schedule in the league. The Bucks aren’t far behind, with their remaining seven opponents boasting a winning percentage of .521.
However, the Bucks did secure a massive head-to-head victory over the 76ers in their last outing. Not only did that push them ahead of the 76ers in the standings, but it also secured the head-to-head tiebreaker. That could be hugely important.
Even with a loss in their last game, the 76ers are still very alive for the top spot thanks to their remaining schedule. Their remaining contests aren’t just the easiest of the group, they’re the easiest in the entire NBA.
Four of their remaining six contests are vs. the Pistons and Pacers, who are both doing as much as possible to improve their lottery position. That should be four wins for Philly, so the door is open if either the Bucks or Heat stumble down the stretch.
The East is still considered wide open in the NBA betting market, with the Nets, Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, and Heat all checking in between +450 and +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Whichever team secures homecourt advantage throughout could be worth some additional scrutiny in the betting market, especially if it’s the Bucks or Heat. Both teams have a record of at least 26-12 at home this season.
2. What’s Next For The Celtics
After effusively praising the Celtics for the better part of a month, they were dealt a massive blow on Sunday. Robert Williams exited their 134-112 victory over the Timberwolves with a knee injury, and it was revealed on Monday that he suffered a torn meniscus. Williams has yet to be officially ruled out for the remainder of the season, but the team will likely have to navigate the early rounds of the playoffs without him. That’s dangerous in a loaded Eastern Conference.
The big question is, can the Celtics survive without him? They do have other options they can use at the position, namely Al Horford and Daniel Theis. Both big men are quality players, with Horford, in particular, having an excellent statistical season. Enes Freedom is also available, although playing him in the playoffs usually doesn’t end well.
Even with their quality alternatives, it’s hard to see the Celtics advancing without Williams. The Celtics have thrived recently due to their elite defense. They rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, and they held teams to an average of 100.4 points during their 24-4 stretch from Jan. 23 through Mar. 27.
Unfortunately, Williams is part of what’s made them so dominant on that end of the floor. The Celtics allow -4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with Williams on the court and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage decreases by -2.1%. Both marks rank in at least the 81st percentile per Cleaning the Glass.
Specifically, Williams is one of the best in the business at deterring opponents near the rim. The Celtics’ opponents see an 11.1% decrease in field goal percentage from inside six feet with Williams on the floor, and just 29.5% of their attempts come from that location. That’s an elite combination of production and intimidation.
This is the Celtics’ best bet a replicating that production, and he has fared well in his 218 minutes with the team. However, the Celtics’ offense has been far less productive with Theis on the floor, averaging 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions.
It will be interesting to see how the team fares with Theis and Horford in place of Williams down the stretch. If their defense suffers, they’re going to be an appealing fade candidate in the postseason. That’s not what I was hoping for as someone with plenty of Celtics exposure in the NBA betting market, but you can’t predict injuries.
3. Dunk(s) Of The Week
We had another strong week of dunks, and two players made multiple appearances in the NBA’s top ten:
The TOP DUNKS from the last week of action! #BestOfNBA pic.twitter.com/ndVx3pLrPV
— NBA (@NBA) March 29, 2022
The first is Jalen Green, who has become a staple of the “Dunks of the Week” video. I said last week that he gives me major Anthony Edwards vibes, and I’m sticking to that comp. I’d love to see this dude in the dunk contest next year (even though that probably won’t happen).
The other player is De’Anthony Melton. We’re used to seeing a Grizzlies point guard make an appearance in the roundup of the week’s best dunks, but it’s usually Ja Morant. However, Melton has done his best Morant impression with his star teammate out of the lineup.
This dunk seemed particularly overlooked in the NBA’s roundup and gets my nod for dunk of the week:
DE'ANTHONY MELTON OH MY GOODNESS 🤯 pic.twitter.com/4phrDUMH9F
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 29, 2022
That is right on Kevon Looney’s head. He’s not a huge threat as a rim protector, but I’m a sucker for a little guy climbing the ladder against a big guy.
The Grizzlies absolutely walloped the Warriors in that contest, extending their record to a ridiculous 19-2 with Morant this season.
As much as I love Morant – he’s a human highlight reel – there’s a reason I pondered if he was overrated earlier this season. He’s gotten most of the credit for changing the Grizzlies’ fortunes, but the Grizzlies have proven they don’t need Morant to win. They may not have a star-studded roster with Morant sidelined, but they are racking up W’s at an alarming rate. That’s not a fluke either: The Grizzlies have been -5.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Morant on the floor this season.
Am I suggesting that the Grizzlies are better without Ja? Don’t be ridiculous. He’s proven to be a big-shot maker, and they’ll need him during the playoffs. But does he deserve to be in the MVP conversation? Absolutely not. He’s not nearly in the same tier as guys like Jokic, Embiid, and Antetokounmpo – guys who need to carry the weight for their teams every single night – and I have him well behind guys like Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic as well.
Ja is still one of the best young players in the league and has an incredibly bright future. But let’s start showing the other guys on the Grizzlies some love too.
4. MVP Market Update
Speaking of the MVP race, we had another seismic shift in the betting landscape. ESPN recently conducted a survey of 100 media members, and the results skewed in favor of Nikola Jokic:
Could Jokic repeat as MVP? 👀
ESPN polled 100 media members to get their thoughts: https://t.co/bHhBJGahMV pic.twitter.com/0BiptXggyO
— ESPN (@espn) March 29, 2022
This is a massive development. These are essentially the same people who will ultimately vote on the award at the end of the year, so Jokic’s stock should see a massive boost.
Unsurprisingly, Jokic has now become the favorite to take the award home once again. His best NBA betting price is -155 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and that’s still a pretty reasonable number. Those odds translate to an implied probability of just over 60%, and I would say the results from that poll give Jokic a greater than 60% chance of winning the award.
Given Jokic’s rise in the NBA betting markets, it’s not surprising that Embiid has fallen. He’s now available at +145 on Caesars, giving you one final chance to grab the talented big man if you’ve yet to do so in NBA betting.
However, if you’re looking to bet someone other than Jokic, I’d probably go with Giannis at this point in NBA betting. The poll results don’t show a huge gap between Giannis and Embiid, and that was before Giannis’ dominant head-to-head performance on Thursday. He stuffed the stat sheet on both ends of the floor – including a game-sealing block with two seconds left – in the way that only Antetokounmpo can. If he closes the year with more performances like that and propels the Bucks to the top seed in the East, it would not shock me if he garnered some attention.
Ultimately, Jokic is still my pick to win this thing – as he has been all season – but I’d rather buy Giannis at +1600 on FanDuel than Embiid at +145 if I was looking to fade him.
5. Nikola Jokic Is A Wizard
It’s easy to get caught up in the moment in NBA betting. Giannis beats Embiid in a head-to-head matchup, so naturally, the talk on Twitter was that Giannis should be the MVP. Giannis has entered LeBron territory where he should be in consideration every single year, and it shouldn’t take a big performance to remind us of that.
However, no one has done more than Jokic on a nightly basis. He’s not the same defensive force as Giannis, but he’s nothing short of a wizard on the offensive end. Some nights he dominates as a scorer. Some nights he crashes the board. But what sets him apart from other great big men is his passing. He drops more dimes than a jailhouse snitch, including some that leave us mere mortals scratching our heads:
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) March 27, 2022
Judging by the Twitter replies, I don’t think the general public appreciates how good that pass is. That’s a backward, over-the-head, against a double-team, in-stride beauty, only for Will Barton to flub the layup.
That who sequence is a perfect encapsulation of Jokic’s season. He has to make magic happen on a nightly basis just to keep his team competitive, all the while hoping that his teammates don’t screw it up. Unfortunately, it’s starting to sound more and more like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will not return before the playoffs, so Jokic is going to have to continue to pull rabbits out of his hat.
6. Play-In Tournament Madness
The Nets and Lakers entered the season as the NBA betting favorites to represent their respective conferences in the NBA Finals, but at this point, both teams are just hoping to make the playoffs. The Nets are currently in 8th in the Eastern Conference, while the Lakers are in 10th in the West.
Brooklyn isn’t in nearly as dire straits as its LA counterparts. There is a bit of a logjam at the bottom of the East – the Nets and 10th-place Hawks are separated by just 1.0 game – but they do benefit from one of the easiest remaining schedules. After Thursday’s tilt with the Bucks, the Nets remaining five contests are against the Cavaliers, Hawks, Rockets, Pacers, and Knicks. It doesn’t get much easier than that.
They should be able to hold on to the No. 8 spot, which sets up a disaster situation for the Cavaliers. They’ve fallen to the No. 7 spot in the conference following a red-hot start to the year, and they’re currently playing without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. That leaves this team extremely vulnerable. They would undoubtedly be underdogs if they’re matched up with the Nets in the first play-in game, which would put them in a win-or-go-home situation vs. either the Hornets or Hawks.
With that in mind, I think there’s some value in grabbing the Cavs to miss the playoffs at +155. If things go as planned in the East, that means in NBA betting you’re essentially getting the Hawks or Hornets at +155 to beat the Cavs straight up in the second play-in game. Given how poorly the Cavs have played recently, that number has some appeal, especially with the surging Hawks.
Things are a bit less complicated in the West. The Timberwolves will likely finish the year as the No. 7 seed, while the Clippers are virtually cemented into the No. 8 spot. The Pelicans also seem to be in control of the race for the No. 9 seed.
That leaves the Lakers and Spurs for the final spot, which is pretty hilarious. The Spurs could not care less about making the playoffs, even trading away one of their best players before the deadline. They are in the middle of a rebuild and were still resting guys like Dejounte Murray as recently as last week.
Still, they’ve made up ground over the Lakers over that time frame, who just can’t get out of their own way. Anthony Davis is nearing a return, but that might not matter since LeBron James is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. The team is now counting on guys like Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, and Malik Monk just to sneak into the play-in tournament, and even that seems like a longshot.
I’ll never rule out a team with LeBron, but 538 now gives them just a three percent chance of making the playoffs in NBA betting. They have the third-hardest remaining schedule in the league, while the Spurs have two remaining matchups vs. the Blazers. Even if they only win those two games, that might be enough to jump the Lakers in the standings. This season can only be described as a nightmare for the Lakers, and I’m honestly not sure how they fix things in the offseason. Westbrook is under contract for more than $47M next year, and there’s simply no way to get that albatross off the books.
7. PG13 Is Back
It was unclear if George would return to the lineup at some point this season. The bright side is that he was able to suit up Tuesday vs. the Jazz. Actually, suit up is an understatement. George was phenomenal, leading the team to another massive comeback win vs. the Jazz.
Big comebacks have been a staple of the Clippers this season, including a 35-point comeback vs. the Wizards. George was absent from that contest, but he was instrumental in beating the Jazz. He racked up 30 points in just 30.8 minutes, including six in the decisive fourth quarter.
With George back in the fold, the Clippers are yet another scary squad in the Western Conference. Remember, this team beat the Jazz in the postseason last year despite Kawhi Leonard being out of the lineup. Ty Lue has proven himself to be one of the best coaches in the league. This team also truly believes they’re never out of any game.
Leonard is the x-factor. The most recent update on him was that he went through a “vigorous workout” on Mar. 10, but there’s still no word if he’ll be able to return this season. It remains unlikely at this point, but I’m not ruling it out. Showing up for the playoffs would be so Kawhi. The man seems to hate the grind of the regular season. But he shines during the bright lights of the playoffs. I’m not recommending a bet on the Clippers at this point, but I’m definitely keeping my eye on this situation.
8. Jordan Poole Has Handles
The emergence of Poole has been one of the biggest developments this season. The team has dropped like a rock in the West standings with Curry out of the lineup. Although Poole continues to impress. He’s averaged 28.3 points per game while shooting 40.2% from 3-point range over his past eight games, and he gives the Warriors yet another weapon on the offensive end.
I knew Poole could score the ball, but I did not realize the man had handles. Look at him put the ball on an absolute string in this ridiculous sequence vs. the Wizards:
This move from Jordan Poole last night. 🤯👀
(via @GuillaumeBInfos)
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 28, 2022
The Warriors lost that contest by a wide margin, but their future remains bright. With guys like Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, and possibly even James Wiseman, they have one of the best-supporting casts in the league behind Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. Even if this year isn’t their year, it still could be.
9. What To Do With Chet Holmgren?
I documented my thoughts on the college game last week, so it goes without saying that I haven’t seen a ton of Holmgren this season. However, when I have seen him, I’ve come away unimpressed. He looks like he’s about 150 pounds soaking wet, and his legs literally look like skin draped over bone.
After the Zags were bounced from the tournament, there was a lot of talk on Twitter about Holmgren not deserving to go No. 1. My dad even told me he thinks Holmgren should go back to school.
However, it’s important to remember that the NBA Draft is about potential. Who cares who the best 20-year-old basketball player is? It’s all about trying to predict who’s going to be the best 25-year-old player in this class. That’s why Drew Timme won’t be the No. 1 pick – he probably won’t even be drafted – and that’s why I remain intrigued by Holmgren.
I’m sure I’m not the first to make this comp, but he reminds me very much of Kristaps Porzingis. Both players are “unicorns” – seven-footers who can stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense. If Holmgren puts some extra weight on, which should be easy with an NBA weightlifting program, that seems like his floor.
However, Holmgren has something that Porzingis doesn’t: the ability to handle the ball on offense. I’m not saying he has guard-like skills, but he’s enough of a playmaker to keep defenses honest. That gives him a ceiling.
Remember what Giannis Antetokounmpo looked like when he entered the league? He was so raw and skinny that he didn’t even go in the lottery. Being skinny also seemed to work out for Kevin Durant, who is probably the most gifted scorer I’ve ever seen.
Will Holmgren be either of those players? Probably not, but he at least has a shot. That’s why he should be the first overall pick this summer, and that’s why he ultimately will be. I’m all in on Chet being the first pick at +180.
10. Putt Of The Year
I’ve talked a bunch about in-stadium shenanigans in this column. It’s low-key one of the best parts of the NBA. You can’t have contests like this during NFL games. Baseball is also so boring that I assume most of their fans are asleep between innings.
Recently, the Blazers held a competition where a fan could drill a full-court putt to try and win a $50k down payment for a house. Big stakes, but an insane degree of difficulty. That’s a 94-foot putt on hardwood into a tiny opening. Sure enough, this fan drilled it:
This fan won $50K on a full-court putt at the Trail Blazers game last night 🤑
(via @NBA)pic.twitter.com/BNlZ0jiIvB
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 26, 2022
That’s better than anything you’ll see on tour this year.
A few thoughts. First of all, that putt had at least another 200 feet of roll in it. This dude drilled the ball so damn hard that there was no way it was coming up short. I respect that. If you don’t want to leave a birdie putt short, you definitely don’t want to leave a $50k putt short.
Secondly, the mortgage company that ran this promotion has to be furious. Never in a million years did they think anyone was draining this thing. Look at how small they made the hole in the door. The margin for error is literally zero.
Let’s just hope they don’t try to pull a fast one like Jackie Moon tried to do to my man Dukes.