Tuesday Best Bets: One MLB Side, Two MLB Props

New York Mets right fielder Starling Marte (left) and designated hitter Pete Alonso (right) celebrate against the Philadelphia Phillies during the ninth inning at Citizens Bank Park.
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Best Bets series is coming off another profitable week, extending its overall record to 99-94-2. That’s a 51.3 percent win rate for those keeping score at home.

Our Best Bets selections mostly have been NBA-centric since March Madness ended. But with Game 1 of the NBA Finals not tipping off until Thursday, our crew must look elsewhere for daily winners — and “elsewhere” is the baseball diamond.

We’re looking to turn a triple play with Tuesday’s trio of MLB Best Bets. Let’s dive in like Ozzie Smith grabbing a groundball up the middle!

All odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on May 31.

Best Bets Track Record

Thursday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 99-94-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 30-30-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 28-36
NBA Props: 33-21
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

MLB Side: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

New York Mets designated hitter Pete Alonso (20) in action against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
Image Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

The bet: Mets -1.5 runs (vs. Washington)
The odds: +102
Where to bet: BetRivers Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) is turning to an NL East clash for his Best Bets play, backing the Mets on the runline (-1.5 runs) against Washington.

Perrault notes that the Mets are 30-20 against the runline this season, which is tied with Arizona for tops in MLB. But here’s the difference: New York’s runline profit is an astounding 15.15 units; Arizona’s is 5.40 units. To put the Mets’ runline success in real-money terms, if you placed a $100 runline wager on New York before every game this season, you would be up $1,515. That’s nearly double the next most-profitable runline team, the Dodgers (+8.08 units).

The Mets opened their current homestead by hitting three of four on the run line, including Monday’s 13-5 shellacking of the Nationals. Now they get to face Washington LHP Patrick Corbin, who owns an inflated 6.30 ERA across 50 innings this season. Corbin has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Mets are starting RHP Trevor Williams, who tossed 3.2 shutout innings against the Nationals on May 11.

Keep this in mind, too: The Mets are 6-2 against Washington this season — and all eight games were decided by multiple runs.

You can grab +102 odds on New York -1.5 at BetRivers.

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MLB Prop: 1B Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis Cardinals)

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) hits a single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park.
Image Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The prop: Over 1.5 total bases (vs. San Diego)
The odds: +115
Where to bet: BetMGM
From: Spencer Limbach

Goldschmidt is on an absolute heater at the moment. The St. Louis slugger currently holds a 21-game hitting streak with 10 homers in the month of May. Speaking to this prop bet, he has gone Over 1.5 total bases in 17 of 26 games this month. That’s a nice 65.4 percent hit rate.

In fact, Goldschmidt has gone Over 1.5 total bases in 26 of 46 games this season (56.5 percent). That includes 15 of 24 contests at home (62.5 percent).

Tuesday’s matchup against San Diego LHP Blake Snell isn’t perfect, but it’s not a deal-breaker. Snell isn’t the same dominant force he was in Tampa Bay. The southpaw posted a mediocre 4.20 ERA (101 hits in 128.2 IP) last year. And since missing the first six weeks of 2022 recovering from injury, he’s given up six hits and six runs across nine innings.

Meanwhile, Goldschmidt sports an MLB-best 326 wRC+ against left-handed tossers.

Getting plus-money (+115) at BetMGM serves as the proverbial icing on the cake.

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BetPrep Prop of the Day: SP Lucas Giolito (Chicago White Sox)

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) delivers against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Image Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The bet: Over 5.5 strikeouts (at Toronto)
The odds: -120
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

After a successful week, the BetPrep Prop of the Day will look to keep the positive momentum rolling with another Best Bets winner.

This time, BetPrep is wagering on White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 strikeouts at the Toronto Blue Jays.

The veteran right-hander has recorded six-plus strikeouts in six of seven starts this season, including all four of his road outings. The fact that Giolito fanned seven hitters in each of his last two starts is an indicator that he’s in a groove.

On Tuesday, Giolito faces a Toronto squad that ranks in the middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate this season at 21.7 percent. Over the weekend, Toronto struck out 10 times against Angels star Shohei Ohtani.

In his only start against the Blue Jays last season, Gioloto got a no-decision in his team’s 3-1 loss at Toronto. But he punched out six in six innings. Also, the only other time he pitched north of the border (back in 2019), Gioloto notched eight Ks in seven innings.

You can find Giolito Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook.