Monday Best Bets: One NBA Side, Two NBA Props

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic points toward a teammate as he reacts to a play against the New Orleans Pelicans
Image Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Friday’s Best Bets went 2-1 yet again, giving us a solid 10-5 record last week. We spent the whole weekend perfecting our Connor McGregor strut, so it would be a shame if we couldn’t put it to use on Monday.

Our NBA props improved to 26-10 on the season, while The Bostonian vs. The Book has cashed three in a row.

Translation: We feel pretty optimistic that we’ll be getting from Point A to Point B in style.

With that, let’s move on to Monday’s Best Bets!

Best Bets Track Record

Friday: 2-1
Year-To-Date: 72-63-1

Bostonian vs. The Book: 20-21-1
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 18-26
NBA Props: 26-10
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 1-0
MLB Sides: 1-0

NBA Side: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic, left, and Jalen Brunson slap hands during Game 5 against the Utah Jazz on Monday, April 25, 2022, in Dallas.
Image Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The bet: Dallas +6 (at Phoenix)
The odds: -110

From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast maintained his hot streak on Friday while correctly picking Memphis -1 at Minnesota. That’s three in a row for Perrault, so we’ll see if he can keep the spark with another NBA playoff selection.

For Monday, Perrault’s contribution to Best Bets lies with an NBA underdog. He’s taking the Mavericks +6 at the Suns in Game 1 of the series.

The rationale for this pick:

  • Dallas is 27-17 ATS on the road this season.
  • Phoenix actually has a losing ATS record (21-23) at home this year.
  • Dallas has covered five straight games.
  • The Mavs are 38-18-1 ATS against the Western Conference this season.
  • Dallas is 2-1 ATS against Phoenix this season.

Perrault also believes that the Suns’ confidence might have taken a hit due to the harder-than-expected first-round series against New Orleans. On top of that, Devin Booker isn’t quite at full strength.

If you believe the Mavericks can keep it within six points, then you can find Dallas +6 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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NBA Prop: PG Chris Paul (Phoenix Suns)

Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) passes the ball against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half of game one of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center in Phoenix on Sunday, April 17, 2022.
Image Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The bet: Over 9.5 assists (vs. Dallas)
The odds: -145

From: Matt LaMarca via NBA Props Monday

Paul made history in his last outing. He finished a perfect 14-for-14 from the field, something no player had previously accomplished during a postseason game. Paul also finished with 33 points, which also set a record for most points in the postseason without a miss.

That performance perhaps made Paul a bit undervalued as a distributor. Prior to his scoring outburst in Game 6, Paul racked up at least 10 assists in each of the five previous games. CP3 also averaged 10.8 assists per game during the regular season, and no one has averaged more potential assists per game during the playoffs.

This number is simply too good to pass up, and it’s easily my favorite prop bet on the slate.

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NBA Prop: F Dorian Finney-Smith (Dallas Mavericks)

Dorian Finney-Smith #10 of the Dallas Mavericks runs down court during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on March 30, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Mavericks defeated the Cavaliers 120-112.
Image Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

The bet: Over 4.5 rebounds (at Phoenix)
The odds: -144

From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

The BetPrep Prop of the Day is another Mavericks vs Suns player prop. Dorian Finney-Smith is the subject of this offering, with BetPrep taking him to go Over 4.5 rebounds in Game 1 against Phoenix.

The folks at BetPrep note that Finney-Smith has snagged five-plus rebounds in five of six playoff games so far. On top of that, it helps that he averaged 43.3 minutes per contest in the previous series against Utah.

If Finney-Smith continues to see 40-45 minutes, he should have more than enough chances to eclipse this rebounding prop.

You can find Finney-Smith Over 4.5 rebounds at -144 at FanDuel Sportsbook.