Monday NBA Props: Back Chris Paul’s Assist Prop

Chris Paul (left) of the Phoenix Suns drives against Herbert Jones (right) of the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half of Game Four of the Western Conference First Round at the Smoothie King Center on April 24, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Image Credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props. The second round of the postseason got underway on Sunday, and we have another pair of Game 1 matchups on Monday. The action gets underway with the 76ers vs. Heat at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with a nightcap between the Mavericks and Suns.

Overall, this should be an excellent night of NBA action, so let’s dive into our top NBA props from Monday’s two-game slate.

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 2.

Heat vs 76ers Player Props

Danny Green #14 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball in the fourth quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on April 05, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Image Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Philadelphia 76ers: SG Danny Green

The prop: 13.5 points + rebounds (at Miami)
The odds: Over -120/Under -110

The big news in this series involves the injury to Joel Embiid. He suffered a right orbital fracture and a mild concussion in the 76ers’ closeout win over the Raptors, and he will miss at least the first two games of the series. With Embiid out of the lineup, it’s going to open up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster on the glass and scoreboard.

However, don’t expect Green to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He increased his usage rate by just +1.4% with Embiid off the floor this season, which was one of the smallest boosts on the team. That makes sense. Green is a catch-and-shoot floor spacer who relies on his teammates for open looks. Overall, Green averaged just 9.5 points per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor.

Additionally, don’t expect Green to do much work on the glass. He’s averaged just 2.5 rebounds per game this season, and he averaged just 3.8 boards per game during the first round.

Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide to get up to speed! 

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat dribbles against the Atlanta Hawks during the third quarter in Game Two of the Eastern Conference First Round at FTX Arena on April 19, 2022 in Miami, Florida.
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Miami Heat: SG Jimmy Butler

The prop: 23.5 points (vs. Philadelphia)
The odds: Over -125/Under -105

Butler missed the Heat’s closeout win over the Hawks due to a knee ailment, and he’s currently listed as questionable on the injury report. That said, Butler told reporters that he will play this evening, so expect to see him on the floor.

Butler had some huge performances in the first round, but he’s not known as a dominant scorer. He averaged just 21.4 points per game during the regular season, and he’s averaged just 17.7 points per game for his career. He’s the type of player who can beat you in a variety of ways, so he doesn’t necessarily need to score to provide value.

The 76ers do take a hit defensively with Embiid sidelined, but this game still figures to be lower scoring. Both of these teams ranked in the bottom five in pace during the regular season, and the total currently sits at just 208.5. With that in mind, asking Butler to score less than 24 points is very reasonable.

Suns vs Mavericks Player Props

Spencer Dinwiddie #26 of the Dallas Mavericks calls out a play during the second half of the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on April 03, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Image Credit: John Fisher/Getty Images

Dallas Mavericks: PG Spencer Dinwiddie

The prop: 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Phoenix)
The odds: Over -120/Under -115

Dinwiddie was fantastic for the Mavericks in the first three games of their first-round series vs. the Jazz, averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.3 rebounds. He helped lead the team to two wins even though they were playing without Luka Doncic.

Dinwiddie’s numbers dropped when Doncic returned to the lineup in Game 4, but there’s still reason for optimism with him moving forward. Dinwiddie logged 31.5 minutes in Game 6 of that series, and he responded with 22 points + rebounds + assists. He likely won’t shoot the ball as well as he did in that outing – he was 58.3% from the field and 57.1% from 3-point range – but he can make up for it with better production in the peripheral categories. He averaged 5.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds per 36 minutes as a member of the Mavs, so he can improve upon his one rebound and two assists from his last contest.

Ultimately, this number seems too low as long as Dinwiddie continues to play more than 30 minutes.

Chris Paul #3 of the Phoenix Suns looks on during the game agains the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on November 14, 2021 in Houston, Texas.
Image Credit: Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images

Phoenix Suns: PG Chris Paul

The prop: 9.5 assists (vs. Dallas)
The odds: Over -145/Under +110

Paul made history in his last outing. He finished a perfect 14-14 from the field, which is something no player had previously accomplished during a postseason game. Paul also finished with 33 points, which also set a new record for most points in the postseason without a miss.

That performance has made Paul a bit undervalued as a distributor. Prior to his scoring outburst in Game 6, Paul had racked up at least 10 assists in each of the five previous games. CP3 also averaged 10.8 assists per game during the regular season, and no one has averaged more potential assists per game during the playoffs.

This number is simply too good to pass up, and it’s easily my favorite prop bet on the slate.