The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Sept. 5
Ryan Feltner: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.78 ERA indicates
Feltner has struggled quite a bit throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 2-6 record with a 5.78 ERA through 14 games (13 starts). He’s thrown significantly better than that, though, as he also owns a 4.23 xFIP.
The biggest concern here is the game taking place in Coors. Feltner’s recorded a 5.52 ERA through 29.1 home innings. His xFIP sits at 4.59, though, and he’s due for positive regression. It just isn’t as drastic of a difference as his numbers on the road.
Feltner gets a terrible matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve been playing great in recent games, posting a .329 team wOBA over the last 14 days. Milwaukee also boasts elite upside against the majority of the MLB.
Bottom Line: Feltner is due for positive regression, even in Coors. This isn’t a matchup that I’m looking to use him in, though.
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.70 ERA suggests
Lynn has seen mixed results through limited innings this season. He owns a 4-5 record with a 4.70 ERA through 15 starts. He’s posted a dominant 3.25 xFIP through 84.1 innings, though.
The White Sox righty has been throwing at an elite level in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP under 3.00 in 6 of his last 8 starts. He also posted an xFIP under 2.00 in a pair of those starts.
Lynn gets an interesting matchup against the Seattle Mariners. They’ve seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .304 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The right-hander will benefit from throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium tonight, though.
Bottom Line: Lynn’s been throwing at an extremely high level, and he’s due for continued success. This isn’t an ideal matchup, but I trust him to get the job done today.
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Michael Wacha: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays | 4:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.56 ERA suggests
Wacha has found plenty of success through 17 starts this season. He boasts a 10-1 record with a 2.56 ERA thus far. He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 3.96 xFIP through 95 innings.
The Boston right-hander has been a boom or bust option in recent starts. He’s posted an xFIP north of 4.00 in 3 of his last 5 starts, including a 6.75 xFIP against the Toronto Blue Jays. He also owns 2.26 and 1.81 xFIPs over that span.
Wacha gets a terrible matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays today. They boast a dominant .345 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The only aspect that is working in Wacha’s favor is the stadium he’s throwing in.
Bottom Line: Wacha is due for regression, but he isn’t necessarily throwing at a low level. He gets a terrible matchup, though, and I’d expect Tampa Bay to get to him today.
