The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, August 1
Luis Garcia: Houston Astros
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.89 home ERA indicates
Garcia has found plenty of success throughout the 2022 season. Oddly enough, the majority of his success has been on the road, but I’m expecting that to change sooner than later.
Garica enters this game with a 4.89 ERA through 49.2 home innings. He owns a dominant 3.28 xFIP in Houston, though. He’s also held his opponents to a 28.8% hard-hit rate with an 18.2% soft-hit rate at home this season.
Garcia gets a solid matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They’re dealing with several injuries, and they’ve been struggling to produce offensively in recent games. This should continue once again tonight.
Bottom Line: Garcia’s advanced metrics look elite in Houston, but he hasn’t found that success at this point. He gets a plus matchup tonight, though, and I’m expecting a dominant start for the right-hander.
Antonio Senzatela: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.57 road ERA suggests
We consistently see Colorado arms throw better than their numbers suggest, and Senzatela is just another one to add to the list. Arguably the most prominent this season is Jon Gray, who looks elite in Texas.
Senzatela has struggled on the road, posting a 6.57 ERA through 24.2 innings. He also owns a solid 3.61 xFIP in those games, though. It’s only a matter of time before he finds positive regression, specifically on the road.
Senzatela gets an interesting matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight. They’ve seen mixed results throughout the season, but they’ve been an average offense in recent weeks. He’ll also benefit from throwing in a more pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Dare I say Senzatela is actually a solid pitcher on the road this season? His baseline metrics don’t show it, but he’s going to start finding more and more success. This could be a sneaky spot for him.
Patrick Corbin: Washington Nationals
Matchup: New York Mets at Washington Nationals | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.49 ERA suggests
Corbin is a complete enigma at this point. Everyone can agree that he’s well past his prime and he has one of the worst contracts in the MLB. He isn’t throwing as bad as everyone thinks, though.
Corbin owns a 4-14 record with a 6.49 ERA through 21 starts. His xFIP sits at a reasonable 4.03, though. This is significantly better than some other arms on this slate, including Cal Quantrill, Marco Gonzales, and Michael Kopech.
Corbin gets a tough matchup against the New York Mets. They rank third in the MLB in team wOBA (.360) over the last 14 days, and this is a tough way to follow up his start against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Bottom Line: Corbin looks awful, but he isn’t actually throwing as bad as his baseline metrics suggest. With that being said, he isn’t so good that I’m expecting him to find success against this New York team tonight.
