The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, July 25
Paolo Espino: Washington Nationals
Matchup: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.57 ERA indicates
Espino has quietly thrown well for Washington this season. He owns an 0-3 record with a 3.57 ERA through 27 games (7 starts). He also possesses a 4.46 xFIP, suggesting he’s due for a bit of regression as the season progresses.
Espino has struggled as a starter this season as well. His xFIP increases slightly to 4.51 through 31.1 innings as a starter.
The right-hander gets a terrible matchup against Los Angeles tonight. The Dodgers feature one of the hottest offenses in the MLB recently, posting a .381 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Espino’s due for some regression, and he’s struggled as a starting pitcher this season. He also gets a terrible matchup against the Dodgers, who I expect to find plenty of success against him tonight.
Aaron Ashby: Milwaukee Brewers
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.57 ERA suggests
Ashby has struggled a surprising amount this season, although that doesn’t tell the whole story. He enters this game with a 2-7 record and a 4.57 ERA through 18 games (12 starts). He owns a dominant 3.30 xFIP, though.
Ashby has been extremely inconsistent throughout the season. He’s quietly posted starts with xFIPs under 1.00 but he’s also recorded multiple 5.99 xFIPs in 2022. It’s an odd situation where the left-hander comes with elite potential but quite a bit of risk.
Tonight, Ashby will face off against Colorado in Milwaukee. The Rockies have been playing well, but they’re a completely different offense on the road.
Bottom Line: Ashby isn’t a consistent arm at this point, but he comes with plenty of potential. I expect him to find success in this particular matchup at home.
Chris Flexen: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.98 ERA suggests
Flexen has recorded a 6-8 record with a 3.79 ERA through 18 starts in 2022. He also owns a terrible 4.98 xFIP, and he’s due for plenty of regression as the season progresses.
Flexen’s advanced metrics look bad over his last few starts, but he hasn’t struggled as much as they would suggest. He’s recorded an ERA lower than his xFIP in 7 of his last 8 starts. He’s only posted an xFIP under 4.50 in one of those starts.
Flexen gets an interesting matchup against Texas tonight. They aren’t a dominant offense, but they do come with some upside. Flexen throwing in an extremely pitcher-friendly stadium could help him tonight, though.
Bottom Line: Flexen is due for plenty of regression, but his pitching style allows him to avoid it at times. Overall, I expect him to find it at some point in time. I’m not entirely sure he’s going to get blown up by the Rangers in such a pitcher-friendly stadium, though.
